Opinion
In 2024, China’s economy and politics will face decisions that could determine the future path of the People’s Republic for a long time.
The Year of the Dragon began in China with the New Year celebrations. In mythology, the zodiac sign represents strength and power. Many superstitious Chinese have long wanted a son to be born in a year of the dragon, which is why the number of newborns in the People’s Republic is expected to increase in 2024. But the small boost in statistics will not defuse the demographic bomb of devastating aging in the Middle Kingdom. And in general, there is little sense of the typical attributes of the dragon in China at the moment. The economy is stuck in a deflationary downward spiral, uncertainty is growing in society, and politics is increasingly mixed with perplexity and aggressiveness.
2024 could be a year of fundamental decisions for the communist regime that may extend far into the future. From an economic point of view, the question is whether Xi Jinping can still overcome the dangerous situation with the tried and tested policy mix of past crises or not. If Xi does not get the bankruptcies in the real estate sector, the shaky situation of the banks, the decline in consumer desire, the fall in prices and the flight from the financial markets under control, the only way back is nationalization. The signs of this are already increasing.
Xi is currently fighting the unrest in society with an increased production of ideology, with an increased suppression of “bad news” from the economy and a growing cult around his own person, which is intended to give the Chinese the feeling, similar to the times of Mao, that ” “wise leaders” will sort everything out in the end. But if all of this is no longer enough, the dictator’s only option is to intensify the oppression of his own people. There are already initial signs of this too.
China is becoming less and less predictable
Politically, for the first time in the Xi era, there are signs of increased power struggles within the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. With the purges in the army and in the regime’s foreign policy apparatus, the dictator wants to suppress any resistance from the outset. The campaign against corruption in the highest leadership circles gives Xi the opportunity to put any actual or possible adversary in their place. So far this seems to be working. But if not, all that remains is a new cultural revolution to stir up the party elite and terrify it, as it once did under its great role model Mao.
What this all means for foreign countries is that in the Year of the Dragon, China is likely to act even less predictably than before. The ever closer alliance with Russia and rogue states such as Iran, Syria and North Korea could lead to further hardening towards the West. And in the worst case scenario, Xi Jinping could try to cover up the country’s internal weakness through military actions. 2024 will also be a crucial year for the People’s Republic’s relationship with Taiwan and the states on its periphery.
This article appeared first which, like stern, is part of RTL Deutschland.
Source: Stern
