In the prior to knowing the inflation datathe Executive Director of EcoGoMarina Dal Pogetto spoke about the rise in prices, dollarization and market doubts.
“The data gives us a little bit below 18.6%, Last month we got a little higher, but the 20% number sounds logical. It will be between the 21st and 19th, the January data will be there,” he explained in dialogue with Rivadavia radio.
Regarding what figures she expects for February, the economist indicated that she expects inflation for the second month of the year is around 14% Although, he clarified, this decrease has to do with the increases that were deferred.
Inflation: what is the analysis on the readjustment of relative prices
“Rate increases were kicked in. The transportation increase that was going to be the first of the month was delayed. The gas issue that was going to fall in February was postponed to March. In the case of electricity, it was increased, but only to those sectors that no longer had subsidies,” he said. And he added: “We had a projection of tariff increases that were six and a bit and today were three and a bit“.
Dal Poggetto also pointed out that there is a slowdown in the increases in mass consumption items. “The post-devaluation increases were passed over and sales plummeted with which there is a reaction from the prices side. In the last three years, companies had a supply problem, not a demand problem. Now what they have is a demand problem as a result of the contractionary policy, so they have to see how they calibrate“, graphic.
Disinflation?
The question for Dal Pogetto is whether the slowdown in March will be “above that of February.” “If you are beginning the path of disinflation. In the roadmap that the Government is managing, they think that this number below the digit could be in May or June, we are still seeing, we are not so clear about it,” he explained.
Dollarization: Dal Pogetto’s warnings
When asked about Milei’s statements that “we are nowhere near dollarization, Dal Poggetto warned that the situation of the Central improved compared to 2023, but There are still several problems to solve.
“You have to rebuild the balance of the BCRA. The balance of the Central Bank is broken here. The situation improved since the program started, but you went from underground, from negative reserves of US$12,000 M and today you have them at US$6,500, number that you reach with the US$2,500 million that the IMF lent you, which you have to return in April,” he explained.
“On the other hand, with the purchase of dollars you liquefied part of the surplus peso with an interest rate, which goes to 8.7%. You are packaging pesos with Bopreal and with placement of Treasury debt. And those paid liabilities continue to exist. It improved, it went from US$65,000 million to US$36,000 million.but those are paid liabilities that are there and cannot be ignored,” he added.
“To that is added that The fiscal package is terribly contractionary. It is proposing zero financial deficit, you cannot finance yourself with issuance, there is no credit with which you are adjusting, in my opinion, in an extremely regressive way,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
