For Orlando Ferreres, meanwhile, inflation last month stood at 2.9% and registered a year-on-year growth of 46.7%. “On the other hand, core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 3.3%, marking an annual increase of 48.5%”, remarked the consultant, who highlighted: “Regarding the main items, ‘Housing’ led the rises of the month, registering a monthly rise of 4.9%. For its part, Clothing did it at 4.6% per month, while Transport and communications advanced 4.3% per month ”. Food, meanwhile, rose 2.3%.
For FIDE, the price increase in November was around 3% and they project end-to-end inflation close to 50% for December. As they estimated from Eco Go, the “traction came from the side of ‘Food and Beverages’, which increased by an average 3.9%. “Conjunctural issues such as the acceleration of the exchange rate gap and the consequent effect on devaluation expectations filtered into the prices of ‘Household Equipment’ where they also saw increases above the average,” they added. In this scenario, for the consulting firm Libertad y Progreso, the CPI for last month will reflect a rise of 3.2%.
“Headline inflation starts at 3% in November, with a slowdown in the food and beverages category to 2.8%. However, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ and ‘Housing’ are above the general indicator, both exceeding 4% monthly inflation ”, said Damián Di Pace, director of the consulting firm Focus Market, and in relation to what that can happen in the future, he added: “In December, there is a seasonal rise in prices. Therefore, it could accelerate even above inflation in October, going to 3.8% ”.
What’s coming
Precisely, when analyzing the evolution that inflation may have in the coming months, according to the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the Central Bank, an acceleration in prices is expected from December. While the surveyed consulting firms project (on average) a rise in the CPI of 3.1% for November, they forecast a rise of 3.4% for December; 3.7% in January; 3.7% in February and 4% in March.
In relation to what may happen next year, Walter Morales, president of Wise Capital, argued that “inflation with a floor at 50% during 2022 is possible.” “Next year there should be an exchange rate adjustment of at least 38%, which is the rate that the BCRA pays for monetary liabilities. This increase in the value of the dollar should cause inflation of at least 13.3%; considering a pass through of 35% due to the trampling of various prices in the economy. Assuming that the monthly price increase was reduced to 2.75%, variations that show 38.5% per year, but added to the transfer of the dollar to prices, inflation in 2022 would be above 51.7%, “he said. Morales.
Source From: Ambito
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