In the first 50 days of the year, the Government obtained income, both tax and other types, for the equivalent of 30% of everything it is planned to collect for 2024, according to the current budget. If an adjustment is not carried out soon, in May, the Executive Branch will begin to “surplus money” because you will have inflows of money outside of what is provided for in the law.
This is because the management of Javier Milei extended the 2023 budget through a Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU), by rejecting the project that Sergio Massa had left, which contemplated a zero deficit and the elimination of tax exemptions. The extension of the law was made without updating budget appropriations and income estimates for inflation.
For that reason, if you see the current data of the extended budget, the total resources planned for 2024 amount to $27.7 billion, which are equal to those that closed in 2023. From them, $17.8 billion corresponds to tax revenues. It must be taken into account that the inflation forecast by analysts for the entire year would be around 211%, at least. So the games should go up in the same proportion.
Current expenses and current budget
In the case of current expenses, the current budget is now $37.7 billion. In this regard, Javier Milei’s government is strictly respecting budget limits. Formally, the law governing expenses provides for a economic deficit by 2024 of about $9.2 trillion. But, obviously, that is going to be reversed.
According to information from the official site Open Budget, between January 1 and February 20, the Government has collected $5.2 billiona figure that represents the 30.54% of the estimate for the entire year. And, if this rate of tax collection is maintained By May, the Government will begin to obtain money outside the budget, that is, unaccounted for money that could be spent discretionally.
This is the same effect that was criticized against the government of Cristina Fernández, who was accused of underestimating inflation in her budgets to generate an effect of unforeseen tax collection.
For now, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, has not given signs of advancing on his own 2024 Budget project. that seeks to reflect more clearly the spending adjustments that it is going to carry out this year. Among them, it should expose how much it plans to spend on retirements and social plans, something that, for now, seems to be heading towards reduction.
In that senseopposition deputies recently demanded that Caputo present a project. The secretary of the Radical Civic Union (UCR) bloc, Manuel Rodríguez, assured that “there will be 50% accumulated inflation in the last two months.”
“It is urgent that the Government present a stabilization plan and, at the same time, encourage production. For this, the Government must send to Congress the 2024 Budget that reflects adjustments and the direction of its program,” he noted.
How tax collection is progressing
Official data indicate that, since the beginning of the year, the treasury has collected about $1.74 trillion from the Value Added Tax (VAT)., which correspond only to the part of the National Co-Participation Government (42.34%) and the specific allocation of the National Social Security Administration (ANSES) (11%). That adds up to 28% of what was estimated for the entire year.
The most striking case is that of export duties. In just 50 days of the year, it has already raised 64% of what was expected for the 12 months and it is a tax that is not shared, so it is a surplus that will remain for the National Government’s coffers, without control, if the numbers are not adjusted.
Something similar happens with the COUNTRY Tax, which has generated controversy with the governors for co-participation. As of February 20, it produced revenues of $1 billion. Of the part of the tax that is allocated to ANSES by specific assignment, The 63% planned for all of 2024 has already entered.
For the infrastructure fund and the tourism document fund, 50% was received. The tax that seems to be most in line is Profits, whose part corresponding to the national government has already collected 20% of what was estimated for the entire year. They are about $583,333 million.
On the other hand, the tax that comes Farthest behind so far is Personal Assets, that with just $32,000 million in revenue, it completed just 10% of everything it has to produce in the year.
Do not celebrate “a side”
Martín Polo, chief strategist of Cohen Argentinapoints out that the government achieved a very good fiscal result in January, achieving a primary surplus of $2 trillion, but maintains that ““You don’t have to celebrate a side,” when paraphrasing football jargon. The thing is that in the first month of the year the level of budget execution is seasonally very low.
Regarding tax collection, suggests that the data is not very good. In January, when the final count was made, tax revenues showed a slight increase of 0.8% in real terms compared to the same month in 2023. But if the withholdings and the COUNTRY Tax are excluded, the rest fell 12% in real terms.
Source: Ambito
