The industrial activity will fall by at least 4% in 2024 due to the lower performance of the sectors linked to domestic consumption and public works, according to projections made by the Study Center (CEU) of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA).
According to the report of the manufacturing entity, Last year ended with a variation close to 0% (+0.3%), thus interrupting “the recovery process that the industry had had in 2021 and 2022 after the pandemic and the macroeconomic crisis of the years 2018-2019-2020 “.
In December, industrial activity registered a drop of -8.3% year-on-year and -6.4% monthly without seasonality.
Regarding the first month of this year, the UIA’s advance data showed a lower performance by the industry, with a deepening of the decline in several sectors.
“Likewise, from the survey carried out on more than 700 companies, the data obtained in the I 2024 UIA Survey reflected this lower industrial performance.
“There was a predominance of companies with falls in production levels, sales to the domestic market, exports and employment,” the entity noted.
UIA: the magnitude of the fall this year will depend on the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables
The rest of the year will continue with a similar trend. The prospects are then for a drop in production, a magnitude that will depend on the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables.
“At the same time, the impact on the costs of the rate increase, the increase in the PAIS tax and the lack of financing tools is expected. This trend would be partially offset by the recovery of sectors linked to agribusiness, the oil and mining sector. “he added.
In 2023, the annual result was characterized by sectoral heterogeneity and the worse performance of the second part of the year in relation to the first.
At the sector level, 6 of the 12 sectors that make up the IPI-CEU registered a year-on-year decline last year (in contrast to 2022 when only one had fallen). Among those that fell the most during the year were Non-metallic Minerals, Food and Beverages, Metalworking and Chemical Substances and Products.
In contrast, the growth of the Automotive, Oil Refining and Paper and Cardboard sectors stood out.
Source: Ambito
