71% of the commitments of subnational states are in foreign currency or adjusted per dollar. In the case of 7 provinces, the debt grew by an average of 305%.
The devaluation of last December 13 was devastating for the finances of the provinces. That day the official dollar went from costing $366.45 to $800, which meant that for most subnational states The cost in pesos of the debt in foreign currency will quadruple.
According to data from 7 provinces as of December 31 which he could access Ambit, he stock of debt in foreign currency from the City of Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, Mendoza, Río Negro, Salta, San Juan and Tucumán It rose 305.7% on average, compared to what they had closed in 2022.
In other words, for every peso that each governor had to apply to buy dollars to pay their maturities before the devaluation, they then had to allocate 4, without taking into account the mini devaluation of the peso in January and February, which aggravated the situation. . It must be taken into account that 74.6% of the provincial debt is in foreign currency.
This week, The Ministry of Economy published the data for 23 provinces and CABA as of September 30 of last year. According to this information, in local currency the subnational states owed $7.9 billion and in dollars $22,747 million. The debt with the Nation is only 5.9% of the total and with banks 2.7%. The greatest weight of the commitments is with the capital market where 74.6% of the commitments are placed in bonds. The remaining 17% is with international organizations.
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But this is like a third trimester photo. The data for the last section of 2023 is missing, which also presented another problem, and that is that as inflation skyrocketed, the debt tied to the CER also grew.
The consulting firm Politikón Chaco was able to collect data from the end of last year from 7 states:
- CABA It ended up with $1.33 trillion of debt, with a nominal increase of 267.5%. The district managed to eliminate debt with the National Treasury and trust funds. It has $538,000 million with international organizations, with a nominal increase of 363%. It also canceled all its debt with banks and left bonds in the market for $798.83 billion. Of them, $61,687 million are in local currency (-19.5%) and $737,142 million in foreign currency (352% nominal). The stock in dollars amounted to $1,275 billion. with an increase of $256%.
- Between rivers It started 2024 with a debt of $584,277 million with an increase of $279.7%. Before the National Treasury it has $12,289.9 million, which marked an increase of $365.1% compared to the end of 2022. It canceled all its debts with the Trust Fund for Provincial Development (FFDP) and registered commitments for $6,261 million with the Fund Federal Trust for Regional Infrastructure (FFFIR) (88.1%). It also has commitments with organizations of $183,376 million, with an increase of 403.6%. In securities it has issued $382,248 million, which explains an advance of 301.2%. Some $375,535 are in dollars, 301.7% more than in 2022. The total stock in dollars is $559,911 million with an increase of 337.1%.
- Mendoza At the end of 2023 it had a debt of $552,742 million (+218.1%). It does not register anything with the Treasury and the FFDP. It had $1.33 billion with the FFFIR (+25.7%) . International Organizations, for $161,731 (+383.1%) and Banks, $14,715 million (-22.6%). Public securities, for $374,899 (+247.6%), in pesos for $20,520 million (+28.6%) and in dollars for $354,378 million (+285.6%). The province ended up with debt in dollars for the equivalent of $516,110 million, an increase of 311.7%.
- Black river, as of December 2023, showed a total of $323,537 million (+281.5%). In bonds they are $270,643 million (+319%), of which $258,876 million are in dollars (+356.3%) and $11,766 million in pesos (+49.5%). With the National Treasury it has $1,676.5% (+7.2%); with the FFDP, $1,303 million (-80%), with the FFFIR, $314.8 million (-17.9%) and with organizations, $47,520 million (+337.2%). The province was left with a stock in dollars of $306,396 million, with an increase of 353.3%.
- While, Jump January started with a total debt of $365,736 million (+285%). In securities it has $262,692 million (+297.4), of which $259,854 million are in dollars (+310.7%). The Treasury owes $65 million, the FFDP, $46,126 million (+221.1%); to the FFFIR, $3,658 million (+110%) and to organizations, $46,365 million (+297.4%). The final balance in dollars is $306,230 million with an increase of 320.2%.
- San Juan It started with commitments for $176,542 million (+325.9%). It owes almost everything to international organizations. They are $167,392 million, with a year-on-year increase of $392.2%, while Tucuman It is shown as one of the most organized provinces. It has a debt of $69,630.9 million with a nominal increase of 88.4%. It has the majority of it with the FFDP, for $55.54 billion. with an increase of 123%. The stock in dollars of both was $167,196 million and $198.2 million respectively. The first had an increase of 392.2% and the second of 69% nominal.
As pointed out the consulting firm Audemus the provincial debt in foreign currency placed in the markets sum US$16,334 million, which represents 71.06% of the total debt. “For 2024, we project capital and interest maturities in foreign currency for US$2,728 million”says the consultant.
On the other hand, The Libertad y Progreso foundation points out that “only in 6 of the 24 jurisdictions do own income, which includes tax and other non-tax income such as royalties, have a greater weight than the transfers that“that are received from the nation through the sharing of taxes and other transfers from the national government.” “This shows that, in general, “There is a high level of dependence on national transfers, automatic and non-automatic, from subnational jurisdictions”says the report.
The next bond maturities, according to Politikon Chaco are:
- Buenos Aires, this Friday, US$336.4 million and 15.1 million euros
- Río Negro, on March 11, for US$43.6 million
- Mendoza, on the 20th of next month, for US$61 million
In April:
- Chubut: US$34.44 million
- Córdoba: US$11.54 million
- Jujuy: US$32.68 million
- Neuquén: US$12.49 million
- Tierra del Fuego: US$2.29 million
In May:
- Neuquén: US$15.66 million
- Santa Fe: US$8.62 million
In June:
- Córdoba: US$159.06 million
- Salta: US$35.25 million
In July:
- Chubut: US$34.44 million
- Córdoba: US$11.54 million
- Tierra del Fuego: US$2.29 million
In August:
- Chaco: US$40.02 million
- Córdoba: US$15.68 million
- Entre Ríos: US$65.79 million
- La Rioja: US$26.27 million
- Neuquén: US$14.42 million
In September:
- Buenos Aires: US$350.26 million
- Mendoza: US$61.04 million
- Río Negro: US$43.64 million
In October:
- Chubut: US$34.44 million
- Córdoba: US$11.54 million
- Jujuy: US$32.68 million
- Neuquén: US$12.49 million
In November:
- Neuquén: US$13.87 million
- Santa Fe: US$8.62 million
In December:
- Córdoba: US$159.06 million
- Salta: US$35.25 million
Source: Ambito
