With economic activity recovered and the third round of vaccination started, the guidelines proposed by Víctor Beker, director of CENE, include a tariff readjustment. “Without a doubt, the reduction in transport and energy subsidies is imperative. It may be at a slower or more accelerated pace, but the rates should be closer to costs, in such a way as to free the treasury of this burdensome burden “, explains the economist.
As the rate adjustment will impact on a lower consumption capacity of the population, Beker wonders, then, what could be the engine that replaces it to drive the economy. In that sense, it points out that it could be exports, if they are properly incentivized.
“The liquidation of foreign currency from non-traditional exports at the tourist exchange rate could be authorized. As long as they are goods and services that do not make up the consumption basket, they would have a minimal effect on inflation and would encourage a strong inflow of foreign currency to the coffers of the Central Bank. It would also be a first step towards an exchange rate split that eliminates the blue market “reflected the economist.
On the other hand, in addition to exports, he argues that the encouragement of investment would enable another demand engine. “For this, the scope of DNU 234/2021 could be extended, including agricultural activity. It should be remembered that the aforementioned rule is intended to promote investment for exports, but excludes the reference sector. On the other hand, an agreement with the IMF would clear up some of the unknowns that are currently holding back investment recovery “, I observe.
“In this way, exports and investment would replace consumption and public spending as the dynamic components of the economy. In this way, a growth process similar to that registered in 2003/2007 could begin, while the nominal variables of the economy are being readjusted “, completed the director of the Center for the Study of the New Economy (CENE) of the University of Belgrano.
Source From: Ambito
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