The inflation closed February between 15% and 18%, according to estimates from private consultants. If these projections are confirmed, it would be the second month of decline, after the peak it reached in December.
“This month the Inflation is going to be closer to 10% than 20%. We are going to see a substantial decrease that is a product of the fiscal and monetary control that we are carrying out,” he had stated days ago. Luis Caputo, Economy Minister. The official data will be known on Tuesday, March 12.
In his opening speech to the ordinary sessions of CongressJavier Milei referred to the topic: “Although there are still months of high inflation, l “it will continue to fall.” Meanwhile, recent increases – such as gasoline, rents and rates – add pressure to this month’s CPI.
Inflation: Domingo Cavallo’s number
In a recent post on his blog, the former minister Sunday Cavallo agreed that February inflation was closer to 10% than the 15% predicted by consultants. For the former official, this data should be “an opportunity to accelerate” the devaluation of the peso, currently set at 2% monthly.
“The price of food and other goods sold in supermarkets had increased excessively in January, goods that were normally adjusted according to the price of the parallel dollar, such as electronics, had to face the drop in the price of pseudo dollars. free. The delay in adjusting the regulated prices of electricity and gas helpede the February inflation rate was lower than analysts anticipated that feed the market forecast survey published by the Central Bank,” Cavallo indicated in his blog.
Inflation: the numbers that consulting firms handle
According to the consultant Orlando Ferreres, February inflation was 14.6%. The items that explained the increase were Health, Transportation and communications (with increases of 23.5% and 23.1% respectively); followed by Miscellaneous goods and housingwhich presented a variation of 18.3% and 18.2% respectively.
For its part, since LCG They calculated that the general CPI will be around fifteen%. That’s because the food inflation that they monitor on a regular basis gave in February 11.4% average. “The last week of February closed with food inflation slowing to 1.3% weekly. The behavior of the month reflects a plateau at these levels. “It imposes a floor of 3.6 inflation points on the general index.”
From Seido, Meanwhile, they indicate that the Inflation decreased in February to 13.5% monthly, although it still remains at double-digit levels. with strong impulse regulated prices. The annual rate was 283.6% year-on-year, they indicated.
For its part, since EcoGo estimated that February inflation was 15.9% on average. Along these lines, they considered it likely that March will be slightly above that range.
According to Freedom and Progressthe February Price Index reached 16.8%, 3.8 points less than the official measurement in January. According to these estimates, in the first two months of the year the CPI accumulates an increase of 40.9% and the interannual variation reaches 288%the highest value since March 1991.
Meanwhile, the consultant ACM analyzed that for the coming months, the market foresees still high inflation, although with a downward trend. According to him Survey of Expectations (REM) from the Central Bank, that level would be 18% monthly, 15.3% in March and single digit figures for June.
Source: Ambito
