The Government deepened during the first two-month adjustment of spending concentrated on social security benefits. According to private estimates, the accrued expenditure of the national administration fell 29% in real terms compared to the same period in 2023, with a greater participation of retirements.
The Expenditures corresponding to the National Social Security Administration (ANSES) would have fallen by 38% in real terms during that periodaccording to a report from the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA).
Based on data from the Ministry of Economy, the CEPA indicates that in the first two months of 2024 the expenses generated were $8.25 billion, against the equivalent of $11.6 billion in the same period last year, measured in currency value. of this year.
“The main expense of the National Public Administration was Social Security, which accounted for 45% of the total. In second place is the payment of Public Debt, with 30%. The rest of the openings show a participation that ranges between 6% (Social Assistance) and 1% (spending on Energy and Science and Research),” the report states.
Various analysts expect that the result of the National Public Sector for February, which will only be known on the 20th or 21st of this month, mark a positive fiscal result, but not as loose as the one achieved in Januarywith a primary surplus of $2 trillion, which is due to the fact that the Government already has to start adding expenses that were not made in the previous period.
The CEPA suggests that in the first two months of the year “a strong representation of debt services was verified public within the expense structure, which represented no more and no less than 30% of the total accrued expenses, and 48% of what was paid.”
2023 Budget extended without adjustment for inflation
To make the progress of budget execution comparable with that of 2023, the report made a projection on how much spending should amount to applying the expected inflation, since the Government extended the budget, but with the same numbers. Thus, for example, in just two months the national government has already consumed almost 25% of the current credits.
In that way, The $29 billion of planned spending of the National Public Administration (APN) currently in force will be transformed into $166.2 billion by December.. So far, accrued spending has fallen 29% in real terms. But it paid to date, for $4.9 billion, represents a drop in the “cash basis” of $33.26%.
It must be taken into account that the APN does not represent the entire National Public Sector (SPN) but the evolution of the expenses of each can serve as an indicator of evolution.
Detail of expenses
In relation to the execution of the inflation adjusting budget credits foreseen in the REM of the Central Bank, the study indicates that:
- The Ministry of Human Capital executed $4 billion during January and February of this year. This implies only 4.9% of the annual projected. The secretariats of this ministry show an execution of 1.6% in Labor, 2.3% in Education and 4.6% in Children, Adolescents and Family.
- The CEPA states that “the level of execution of the Ministry of Human Capital is low, given the social relevance of its programs and activities that encompass what were previously three ministries (Education, Labor, and Social Development).”
- “Even the same situation is observed in the Ministry of Health, which executed $71 billion, which is equivalent to 2.4% of the projected, even less than the ministry previously analyzed,” indicates the report.
- On the other hand, the Ministry of Security reports higher levels of execution. In aggregate, the Ministry executed 3.3% of the total projected for the year. Most of the security forces that depend on this Ministry are in a similar situation.
- Thus, the Airport Security Police executed 3.2%, the Argentine Federal Police 2.9%, the National Gendarmerie 1.6%, the Argentine Naval Prefecture 4.9% and the National Penitentiary Service 3. 6%.
- Among the other jurisdictions, the Head of the Cabinet of Ministers stands out, with an execution of 4.8%; and fundamentally the Public Debt Services which, by executing $2.49 billion, added up to 13.4% of the projected annual budget.
Source: Ambito
