At the beginning of the second day of the field sample in St nicolasthe words of Javier Milei regarding the future of the economy. The possible dollarization and the end of the trap They remained spinning in the minds of the producers, who are the ones who ultimately must be tempted to commercialize their production. That is the first step for the desired ones to arrive. “countryside dollars”.
In that context, Milei He explained that “freedom will allow (to field) to once again be the engine of Argentine growth” and added that “the idea is to raise the stocks as soon as possible”.
These two statements did not go unnoticed since everything linked to the stocks generated uncertainty in the short term in recent days. That statement – which he would have said Milei in the auditorium would take place in the middle of the year – it could cost the Government dearly even though for many it implies going in the right direction.
The main problem with the announcement about the lifting of the stocks It focuses on the fact that it arouses more uncertainty, in a macro scenario that does not have one more problem.
It is clear that – once the harvest is lifted – the grain holders will put into the commercial circuit as little soy and corn as possiblesince the expectation of access to dollar as payment for grains opens up an enormous amount of ideas and proposals to which today the producer does not have access.
There is not a millimeter of doubt in this: with the current exchange rate and with the promise of releasing the stocks There is no chance of starting the commercial chain whose purpose is export and the consequent income of foreign currency.
To all this we must add the fall in international prices. To understand the seriousness of the matter, it is worth looking at the latest report from the Rosario Stock Exchangewhich indicates that agricultural exports lost US$4.5 billion in the first two months of the year because commodities suffered a downward trend, which leaves Argentine export prices 35% below those recorded at the same time last year.”
With this panorama, exports of grains, oils, flours and derivatives are projected at US$31.3 billion for the 2023/24 campaign, with losses that are not only measured in currency but also in volume per the heat wave and the lack of rain suffered in the last week of January and the beginning of February.
Nor can we forget that for several weeks – already during the management of Vilella– due to a delay in the resolution of a conflict between producers and industrialists that was settled with the creation of the exporter dollar, there was practically no income from withholdings to the State coffers. A market operator explained to Ámbito that “during that time, the country lost income and that was government malpractice.”
Retentions and the fight with the provinces
After several governors and the president himself have visited Expoagro, expectations are increasing for the meeting next Friday, in which governors and members of the Executive Branch They will face each other and will have to raise their differences, face to face.
Meanwhile, the leaders of the most important agricultural provinces in the country raised their differences with the national government. Sergio Bussominister of Bioagroindustry of Córdoba assured Ambit that “in this new shipment (of the bus law) we don’t know what’s going to happen. The prosecutor is a chapter that should not be there because there was a forceful rejection from everyone inside. This Government came to lower taxes and until now not only has it not lowered any but it has tried to impose more taxes and universalize withholdings on everything that is exported.”
The person who also targeted the first president was Javier RodriguezMinister of Agrarian Development of Buenos Aires. The government official Axel Kicillof He assured Ámbito that “the macroeconomic difficulties, such as inflation, fuel deregulation, etc. “There is tremendous political uncertainty.”
Rodriguez He criticized the condition that the executive branch placed on the May 25 call under the protection of a rapid sanction of the package of laws that was opportunely rejected. Although the minister of the interior, Guillermo Francos He denied that this was going to happen, no one can put their hands in the fire because that will happen or not.
The Buenos Aires official explained that he only sees “inaction” in the agricultural area at the national level and that “in these three months we have not seen concrete measures to provide answers to the pending issues.”
Maybe the secretary Vilella need more time to begin to act on the issues that matter to producers, such as the extension of a measure by the previous government, which prevents access to credits that have subsidized rates – even in the National Bank– if they retain more than 5% of the total soybeans produced in their fields.
Source: Ambito
