The rumors were based on a real event: an increase of $1 in the wholesale dollar on Tuesday (although it had started with a rise of $1.5 per day), rise that is repeated this Wednesday. However, the Government denies any change in that regard.
Through social networks, different references of the city they began to warn about an acceleration of the crawl pace, but from the Central they deny it. “There is no modification in the crawling,” they told Ambit from the monetary regulator.
For its part, one of the voices that the market most follows in terms of monetary policy is that of Gustavo Quintana, from PR Change Operators, who publishes BCRA data daily through its X networks (ex Twitter). “You have to wait to see the average of several days and not draw conclusions based on daily data,” she points out on this topic.
A correction compared to February
Likewise, he points out that We come from a week in which the exchange rate correction was lower than the previous one, $3.60 versus $3.90, so it does not rule out that the BCRA may be compensating for that this week with the largest increase on Tuesday. And on the first day of March, the wholesale dollar adjusted just $0.30.
Specifically, the official dollar rose $1.5 on Monday, $1 on Tuesday and marks (so far) an increase of $1 this Wednesday. Everything would indicate an acceleration of crawling, which, according to City analysts, would have gone from 2% to 2.7% monthly (according to the projection of this week’s data for the entire month).
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Thus, while on Friday it closed at $842.75, this Wednesday it is already trading at $346 and marks an acceleration, even if it is for the moment (if the BCRA is to be believed), given that it had been rising at an average rate of between $0.50/60 daily until last week.
Dollar: it could be a temporary acceleration of the crawling peg
However, Quintana warns that we will have to wait to see how it closes this Wednesday, given that yesterday, for example, it had opened with a rise of $1.5 and ended with a daily rise of $1.
The analyst points out that “the offer is very loaded and the closing may be at 845.50, just $0.50 above yesterday, unless the BCRA pay the offer to make it close at 846”, given that at 11 in the morning there were US$130 million in the offer, against only US$6.5 million in the bet (the bid).
A voice from the market suggests that the BCRA may be testing with these initial increases in the crawl, which then deflates in the afternoon, how the market reacts to these “feints”, a kind of experiment to see how it could assimilate an acceleration of the crawling peg .
However, a report from Cohen Aliados Financieros warns that this Tuesday “the devaluation was 3.6% monthly and, in nominal terms, it doubled the daily devaluation (it went from 50 cents a day to one peso a day).”
And they anticipate that, in today’s roundtable we will observe with special attention whether this trend is consolidated, which would confirm that indeed the BCRA decided to increase the pace of crawling peg at a level closer to 4% per month.
Source: Ambito
