In a context where Parallel exchange rates are fixed and inflation remains at high levelsa greening of appetite for carry trade. Despite this, however, There are few instruments that pay a rate in pesos that beats the general increase in prices.
It should be noted that the carry trade It is a strategy that consists of invest in assets in pesoscapture the profit and then buy back dollars. In the end, if the objective was achieved, the investor will have more dollars than he had at the beginning.
But, What is happening these days to make you think about this investment strategy again?
It should be noted that this Wednesday both the MEP dollar, like the blue and the Cash with Settlement (CCL) They continued with a marked bearish trend. In fact, The first two have already reached $1,000 and The stock market became the cheapest exchange rate of the parallels these days.
In this situation Some analysts maintain that some of the market players are turning to pricing in pesos.. About, Nicolas CappellaSales Trader IEB Groupanalyzed: “A very abrupt day of decline in the dollar, which was offered and in quantity. On the one hand, we have the flow of exporters and, on the other, We also notice more players selling to bet on the carry trade“.
consulted by Ambit, Rafael Di Giornowarned, however, of the consequences that can bring about making a rate in pesos and then turning to the dollar: “It’s like a very theoretical concept, that is, very difficult to get it to pay you the same as inflation. You can stay in pesos in the months when the exchange rate is delayed but you have to have great timing, because after In one day you return what you earned in two months“.
Carry trade: what instruments the market chooses
For the economist Gustavo Ber“there is a greater appetite for carry-trade mainly through CER instruments and also fixed ratein complement to the greater demand that has been awakening in recent times dollar bonds”.
For Di Giornoin this context, Retailers are doing UVA fixed terms. For his part, he believes that the average investor is taking advantage some short CER instrument although, he warned, the TX26 already pays “less double digits.”
“He who is in pesos wins but few people are in pesos cash by own decision but rather they remain active in pesos because the restrictions and stocks continue. The exchange rate is falling behind a lot and the recession is going to worsen,” analyzed Di Giorno.
Source: Ambito
