In parallel, the president Javier Milei He anticipated a “very complicated” March in terms of inflation, but at the same time stated that “it is collapsing” due to a strong contraction in the amount of money in circulation. “March is going to be very complicated because it has a very dense seasonality issue, but I do not rule out that in April there will be a sharp drop in inflation,” said the head of state during a television interview.
How much is the inflation in the city of Buenos Aires?
At the end of last week the official indicator of the inflation in the City of Buenos Aireswhich serves as a preview of the national data, which marked a price increase of 14.1% during February and accumulated an increase of 264.5% in the last 12 months.
This monthly variation is a sample of what the National Government expects. In this way, the Buenos Aires CPI reflected a drop of more than seven percentage points compared to the January record (when it had reached 21.7%). In the first two months of 2024, inflation in the City reached 38.9%.
What inflation data do you expect in the market?
He Survey of Market Expectations (REM)which is prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA) with the projections of the main market players and consultants, estimated that the February price index reached 15.8 percentwhile for the accumulated annual figure they foresee an increase of 210.2 percent at the end of this year.
Workers’ inflation, prepared by the Metropolitan University for Education and Work (UMET) and the Center for Concertation and Development (CCD), was along the same lines, predicting 15.8 percent in February, which which reflects a deceleration of 6.8 percent compared to January.
In the first two months of the year, the price variation reached an increase of 41.8 percent and has accumulated an increase of 282.3% in the last 12 months.
What inflation data do private consulting firms expect?
The consultancy’s Retail Price Survey Eco Gofor its part, estimated inflation for the second month of the year one tenth above previous forecasts, placing it at 15.9 percent monthly.
The S&T consulting, meanwhile, measured a CPI of 16.3% in February, falling compared to the 19.6% that the own survey showed in January. Despite the slowdown, the interannual variation rose to 275%, the highest since March 1991. Since the signing of Camilo Tiscornia They analyzed that “the strong adjustments in various regulated prices explained much of the behavior of the month.”
“The rise in public transportation caused the transportation item to increase 47% monthly. The adjustment in electricity that was implemented in the middle of the month was combined with a significant increase in the salary of building managers to generate a variation of 38% monthly in the housing sector. In both cases, these are movements well above the average,” they added.
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Reuters
In the measurements of the Freedom and Progress Foundationthe February Price Index reached 16.8%, slowing down 3.8 percentage points compared to the official measurement in January (20.6%).
According to these calculations, in the first two months of the year, the CPI accumulates a rise of 40.9% and the interannual variation reaches 288%, the highest value since March 1991.
From the entity they explained that the evolution of the month was influenced by a substantially high variation during the first week, due to the update of rates in AMBA public transport and contributed that “from the second week of the month, the data converged to variations in the range of 2%-3% weekly, maintaining the trend of the last fortnight of January and reaching values similar to those of September 2023”.
Inflation: they foresee a slight “rebound” for March
According to the REM published by the BCRA the inflation of February would be 15.8%, to drop to 14.3% in March. However, due to the variations in the first week of March, added to different seasonal factors, some private consulting firms questioned whether the CPI would continue on the downward path.
For example, the price index prepared FAITHFUL registered in the first week of March an increase of 5.7%, the largest weekly increase since the beginning of the year. It rose 15% compared to the first week of February and 304.7% in the year-on-year comparison.
“The largest weekly increase corresponds to Regulated (8.5%) as a consequence, mainly, of the increase in prepaid payments,” he clarified.
For its part, since LCG pointed out that the food price survey had a 3.6% weekly increase, accelerating 2.3 pp compared to the previous week. “Average monthly inflation seems to be stabilizing at a still high level. This week it reached 12%, accelerating again compared to the previous week (+0.5 pp). At the same time, the percentage of products with increases remains practically constant at 33% of the total, which means that the total basket adjusts every 3 weeks,” the consultancy explained.
Meanwhile, since C&T They warned about the acceleration in food prices in the last days of February. A dynamic that, “along with the rise in electricity in the middle of the month, leaves a statistical drag of about 3% for Marcha month in which education adjustments will have a significant weight and to which an increase in gas can be added.”
Source: Ambito
