The main recipient of the operation is the public sector, which owns nearly two-thirds of the eligible securities. The economic team estimates that lower rates could encourage some banks to enter the swap.
The BCRA will not offer puts for the exchange of Treasury debt.
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He debt swap in pesos that the Government makes between this Monday and Tuesday It will not have a key driver to drive the participation of private holders. As confirmed Ambit with official sources, The Central Bank decided not to offer liquidity insurance for banks (known as puts or call options in financial jargon) on the securities that the Treasury will deliver as part of the conversion operation. Although the market and the economic team consider that the lack of this tool could be partially compensated by the effect of the lowering of the monetary policy rate that came into force today.
With this conversion, Luis Caputo and his team seek to clear the bulk of this year’s maturities. Altogether, the securities eligible for the operation total about $55 billion. This is a bet that, according to analysts, aims to pave the way for the challenge of lifting the exchange rate at some point in 2024.
According to the officials, although the operation is open to all market players, The design of the exchange was designed for public organizations, which concentrate around two thirds of the eligible titles. In fact, in the City, they consider that the large holdings of bonds from the BCRA and the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) of the ANSES provide a floor for adhesion to the exchange of around 60% or 65%. The main doubt was whether the private creditors.
Mainly, the focus was on the banks, which own more than half of the public securities in private hands. The main factor to elucidate the participation of this sector was to know if the Central Bank would maintain the main stimulus that financial entities had to actively participate in the latest Treasury debt placements: the offering of puts, liquidity insurance to guarantee banks that When they want to get rid of the sovereign bonds, the BCRA would be there to buy them back.
Ámbito was able to confirm with important official sources that this time the puts will not be on the table. That is, entities will not have that insurance to accept migrating from securities maturing in 2024 to a basket composed of CER bonds (adjusted for inflation) with zero coupons for 2025, 2026, 2026 and 2028, such as the one offered. However, officials consulted by this means and also some City analysts agree that, At least partially, the lack of that incentive could be compensated by the lower interest rate which the monetary authority announced yesterday.
The entity chaired by Santiago Bausili today reduced the rate of passive passes overnight, the main instrument of monetary regulation, from 100% to 80%, in addition to deregulating the minimum rate for fixed-term placements. This implies that banks that have repos will now access a lower yield: from 8.3% monthly it drops to 6.6%, in a clear commitment by the Government to reinforce the blender of the stock of paid liabilities of the BCRA. On the horizon, Javier Milei’s rush to raise the stocks exchange as soon as possible.
With a lower rate recognized by the Central Bank for banks, some official offices consider that the exchange proposal has now become more attractive for some financial entities. The truth is that this will be seen shortly, when the result of the operation is known.
Source: Ambito
