The Central Bank lowered the monetary policy rate to 80% annually, which represents an effective rate of 116.9% annually, compared to an inflation rate that the consulting firm Salvador Di Stefano projects to March 2025 in the 133.1% annual. This implies that the Central Bank’s remunerated liabilities will grow below expected inflation. We project the devaluation rate in the 108.9% annually, which implies that the rate paid by the Central Bank would be positive against the American currency by 3.8% annually.
As for the Fixed deadlinesthe rate paid by the entities was released, therefore, Supply and demand will define the market. Since banks do not need deposits, the market was built around a nominal rate of 75% per year, which implies an effective rate of 107.0% per year. This rate is lower than the projected inflation, which implies a negative rate of 11%. .2% annually.
The best investments of the moment
The Fixed deadlines have a negative rate of two digits, and bonds in pesos adjusted for inflation have negative rates of one digit, as is the case of the TX26 that yields – 7.6% annually and the TX28 which yields -5.0% annually. This implies that instead of making a fixed term it is better to invest in this type of financial instruments, which have a lower negative rate compared to inflation. To buy a inflation adjusted bond and for it to have a positive rate, we have to buy the DICP that expires in 2033 and has a positive rate of 2.2% annually compared to inflation.
The peso bonds Adjusted for inflation, they have shown a positive behavior in pesos and dollars, given that the dollar today is trading at similar values to what it had at the beginning of the year. For example, the MEP dollar was worth $995 on December 30, and on Wednesday it closed at $1,012.
The dynamics of the capital market have resulted in great profits so far in 2023, for example, the AL30 It was worth US$37.85 on December 30 and this Wednesday it closed at $47.78 which represents a gain in dollars of 28.9%. The bonus AE38 As of December 30, it was worth $39.92while yesterday it closed at US$42.52, which implies a gain of 2.5% annually. This implies that short bonds comfortably outperformed long bonds that have higher income payments in profits.
He Merval index In dollars it was quoted at the end of the year at US$940.4 and this Wednesday it reached US$997.4, which implies a gain of 6.1%.
So far this year, the greatest profits have been obtained in the bonds in pesos adjusted for inflationand in the short-term dollar sovereign bondswhile long bonds and the merval index had favorable returns, but not with large differences.
Dollar and debt: what’s coming, what’s coming
If the national government wants to obtain external financing, it must work to lower the risk countrydollar bonds should show an internal rate of return that is between 15% and 18% annually, which would leave the bonds as the AL30 and AE38 with profits greater than 30% annually.
The stocks should take offHowever, the threat of a downward correction in the American economy means that the market continues to move sideways in a range between the US$1,000 ceiling and the US$900 floor with ample possibilities of correction.
The Bonds in inflation-adjusted pesos continue to be an excellent investmentits technical value runs at the rate of inflation, and its parities accompany the rise, we should not rule out that any deviation in prices will give these titles the opportunity to enhance growth.
In short, it would seem that the market is on the side of the inflation-adjusted pesos and short-term dollar sovereign bonds, the rest goes unnoticed within a general attractive business trend, but somewhat tied up in terms of profits. He dollar is no longer desired as in the pastthe supply in the market is very high, as a result of the recession, exports and Bopreal.
Source: Ambito
