The reserves of Central Bank (BCRA) They are located at US$27,645 million and experienced a decrease of US$616 million in a single day this Tuesday and that occurred on a day in which acquired US$77 million in the Free Exchange Market (MLC). This situation responds to the fact that the entity had to make payments abroad for almost US$700 million, of which, a percentage was allocated to a debt with the IDB and the same to pay the bond before a court in England for the dispute with bondholders. foreign.
However, this news did not have a significant impact on the market, which showed calm and less activity due to the “Easter mode” in which investors operated. Yes ok financial dollars rosethe business volume was lower than usual, with a considerable supply, but few buyers.
The trader Nicolás Cappella, from Investing in the Stock Market, pointed out that 48-hour quotes are influenced by the rate during the holiday, which explains the increase in the MEP to $1,027.09 (+1.4%) and the CCL to $1,101.71 (+2%). The gap between the MEP and the CCL is now 26.7%. As for the blue dollar, due to the lack of demand, it lost $5 and closed at $1,015.
Calm market reaction
In the area of Sovereign bonds, a slight drop was observed after eight consecutive sessions of increases. The country risk also had a slight decrease of 9 units, settling at 1,430 basis points. The bonds linked to the CER had a negative performance in general, except for the TX25, which advanced 2.30%.
In it futures market, 1,163,908 contracts were registered with positive adjustments for the entire second semester. There was special interest in April contracts, indicating market readiness for a possible modification of the crawling peg to 2% per month.
The Actions They operated calmly with limited business for $16,924 million. The S&P Merval had a slight fall of 0.32%, influenced by the decline in bank shares. In the international market, ADRs recorded losses led by Banco Supervielle (-5.7%), Despegar (-3.3%) and Loma Negra (-3.1%).
Economic activity and the official dollar, market concerns
The market is confident in the prospects presented by the current economic model, but has its concerns with some aspects. The real economy and the fall in activity and consumption, which threaten the future of business in Argentina is one. The other, the exchange delay regarding inflation.
And economic analysts, in general, agree that an acceleration of the exchange rate is necessary official, since they consider that, with an accumulated inflation of almost 70% in the current government administration, it does not resist a crawling peg of 2%, as the BCRA has been applying until now. They insist on the need to accelerate the pace of daily microdevaluations so that the exchange rate is more competitive.
Milei said that he will not devalue
However, the Government insists that this will not happen. He had already said it a few days ago and it was repeated repeatedly by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, and by the President of the Nation himself, in his speech this Tuesday within the framework of the International Economic Fourm (IEFA) Latam 2024, which was held yesterday and today in the City of Buenos Aires, criticized those who ask for a crawling peg acceleration and said that it is an absurd claim in the current context.
Milei did not waste the time to criticize the training of economists at the Argentine public university. She pointed out that she is “very ideologized” and that they do not know what the real exchange rate is. “Why would I devalue?” Milei asked herself. And she pointed out that It is not necessary in a context in which “all futures markets are aligned with the Government’s monetary policy”.
Source: Ambito
