The US bank anticipated a sharp drop in inflation and activity growth of 5.2% by 2025, although by 2024 they expect a drop of 3.6%.
The main bank of United States, JP Morganprojected how economic activity will advance in Argentina in the remainder of the year. Despite the advance for retail prices, which They expect them to grow 200% in 2024, just below 211% of 2023, With a strong adjustment in relative prices, they looked optimistically at the outlook for next year.
By 2025, however, they expect the situation to improve with inflation of 40%. Regarding GDP, they anticipated a GDP rebound of 5.2%, while for 2024 they predicted a fall of 3.6%.
The estimates are more optimistic than those of the market average, which They foresee economic growth of 3-4 percent and one inflation close to 60% next yearaccording to the latest survey of expectations published by the Central bank.
Fiscal deficit and external debt: all JP Morgan projections
On the other hand, the team of analysts at Morgan projected that The fiscal deficit will be 1.7% of GDP this year and of 0.7% in 2025with more conservative calculations than those promised by the Governmentaimed at achieving balance in public accounts at the end of this year.
Regarding the external debt, another of the central points that the Argentine economy must face, JP Morgan estimated that in 2023 will reach 64% of GDPMeanwhile in 2025 will drop to 57%. On the side of central bankthey projected that reserves would rise to US$22.4 billion and US$27.4 billionrespectively.
This is not the first report that reflects the Wall Street optimism in Argentine accounts. Morgan Stanley I had already predicted that inflation will fall to 31% next yearin the most optimistic calculation of the entire international market so far.
Foreign investors and analysts who passed through Buenos Aires in recent weeks They left behind their skepticism about the depth of the reforms promised by Milei in the electoral campaign, when surprised by the fiscal surplus recorded in the first two months of the year.
Source: Ambito
