The Government discounts a slowdown compared to last month, but private consultants estimate that it would remain in the double digits.
He National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will announce this Friday the Index of Consumer Prices (CPI) corresponding to the month of March. In the Executive they discount a slowdown compared to last month, but private consultants estimate that it would remain in two-digit order.
The Minister of Economy himself, Luis Caputoanticipated last week that the data that will be released will be around 10%, which would imply a drop of more than two points with respect to the inflation of 13.2% from February. However, a fact that cannot go unnoticed, Because it usually serves as a preview for the data given by INDEC, CABA’s inflation was 13.2% in March and has accumulated 57.3% so far this year.so it could be intuited that the CPI would be around that number more than the one advanced by the head of the Treasury.
However, the trend of price dynamics is bearish. From EconviewsFor example, they estimate 12% for the month of March, for April 10%, May 9% and June 7%, reaching single digits in the fifth month of the year. Meanwhile, the Libertad y Progreso Foundation estimates that it will be 10.6%.
“The CPI LyP showed an increase of 10.6% in March, slowing down 2.6 percentage points compared to the official measurement in February (13.2%). In this way, in the first quarter of the year the CPI accumulated an increase of 51.1%. The interannual variation reaches 286.4%, reaching its highest value since March 1991,” maintains the Foundation.
Likewise, it is worth remembering that according to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) that the Central Bank publishes month after month, with the projections of the consulting firms, The CPI for March will be around 12.5%.
Lower monetary policy rates
Responding to market expectations and supported by internal indicators that corroborated that same direction, the Central Bank took preventive measures yesterday in line with its strategy of maintaining a considerably low interest rate.
Inflation Prices Supermarket Consumer Products
Mariano Fuchila
In this sense, it applied a new cut, setting the rate at 70% nominal annually, which translates into 5.8% nominal monthly. This action confirms the predictions of financial experts, who also anticipate a decrease of at least one point in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) compared to the previous month.
This movement follows the same strategic line implemented in March, when the Central Bank reduced the reference interest rate by 20 points the day before the release of economic data.
Source: Ambito
