Main national and international banks and consultancies They projected how much inflation will reach in 2024 and what will happen to the main economic variables in the coming months, including the dollar and growth.
Focus Economics released the survey for the month of April, where more than 40 economists evaluated the impact that the Government’s measures had and how they could influence the rise in prices, as well as the value of the official dollar.
After the INDEC confirmed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March reached 11%, the decreasing trend of recent months was ratified: in February it was 13.2% and in January it was 20.6%.
However, for financial analysts at Focus Economics Uncertainty remains about whether the Government will be able to continue lowering inflation, given that increases in public services and other expenses are expected.
“This year, inflation will remain high due to the elimination of price controls and the reduction of the gap between official and parallel exchange rates,” those consulted assessed.
“This year inflation will remain high due to the elimination of price controls and to the reduction of the gap between official and parallel exchange rates. Fiscal adjustment, growth in the money supply and any change in the exchange rate regime will be key,” focusEconomics analysts highlight.
In this way, experts calculate that Consumer prices will increase by 272.3% on average in 2024, which represents a reduction of 15.4 percentage points compared to the report from a month ago.
Growth: analysts’ expectations
As for the economic growth expected for this year, the surveyed panelists maintain that “President Milei’s macroeconomic plan for sustained fiscal adjustment, a devaluation of the currency and the elimination of price controls will take its toll on the economy. A strong rebound in agricultural production will mitigate in part the fall. Parliamentary support for the Government’s reforms and social unrest are key factors to monitor,” they summarize.
In this way, economists consider that GDP would contract 3.1% in 2024, 0.4 percentage point less than a month ago.
Dollar: what will be the price for the coming months
The banks and consultants They projected that by the end of the year the official dollar reach a average value of $1,549. That is, a number significantly lower than the latest reports (in March, for example, it was set at $1,702).
On the other hand, they considered that it will not be easy for the Government to sustain the crawling pegthrough which the value of the us currency in a 2% monthly.
“The peso should weaken from current levels in the future,” summarize the FocusEconomics panelists.
If these expected figures occur, andThe wholesale exchange rate could advance around 91.6% throughout 2024, well behind the estimated increase in inflation of almost 272%.
This expected projection for the price of the official dollar practically coincides with the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM), carried out by the Central Bank among a group of local analysts, where a wholesale US bill for the end of the year is considered to be $1,438.3.
Dollar: the minimum and maximum values for the exchange rate, according to each consulting firm
For him official exchange rate, there are only 3 consultancies that place it below $1,000. These are: Pezco Economics ($934.7), Torino Capital ($946.3) and Fitch Solutions ($980). For their part, FIEL and C&T Consultores predict one dollar at $1,200 and $1,240 respectively.
Lastly, the Maximum dollar values they predict are:
- Balance: $2,250
- S&P Global Ratings: $2,100
- MAPFRE Economics: $2,085
- Analytica Consulting: $2,063
- Econviews: $2,021.
Source: Ambito
