This analysis was presented by its founder, Luciano Cohan, on his X account (ex Twitter) and added that core inflation, which excludes regulated prices such as public services and seasonal prices such as fruits and vegetablesrecorded an even steeper drop of -1.8% weekly.
“On a monthly basis, our CPI moved at a rate of 7.6% MoM (month-on-month), down from the previous 8.9% MoM. Year-on-year inflation continues to move at alarmingly high levelsbut the rate of 299.8% YoY (year on year) was also below the previous 308.5% YoY,” says the consulting firm.
Cohan argues that the variation of core inflation In the last four weeks it was 0%, the lowest figure since they began measuring at high frequency in 2013, when the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) was not yet operational. These data indicate a marked trend towards price stability in the market, which could have important implications for the economy in general. But what is the best way to read this data?
It is worth remembering that, deflation It is explained as the opposite phenomenon to inflation, that is, a general and continued fall in prices in the economy. Unlike inflationary dynamics, where prices increase constantly and sustainably in deflation, the opposite happens: decrease.
The background to the data revealed by Alphacast comes after inflation for March, which was 11% monthly and showed a decrease compared to 13.2% in February. It was the lowest level since October of last year. Therefore, the survey carried out by Cohan’s firm would confirm the trend.
Last month was strongly influenced by the seasonal increase in education (52.7% nationwide) and various regulated components (18.1%), among which electricity stood out. If you leave those items aside and put The focus on core inflation, the monthly rate was 9.4%, falling compared to 12.3% in February.
What other measurements say
Camilo Tiscorniaeconomist and director of C&T Consultantsexplains in statements to Ambit that the measurement carried out by the consulting firm does not coincide with the diagnosis of deflation in the last week. However, he maintains that “the core is very calm, although we do not have deflation.”
“We believe that the figure could be close to 7% if we consider that the drop in prepaid payments will impact this month. Beyond that, there is a significant drop in core inflation“concludes Tiscornia.
Meanwhile, from another consulting firm in the city that prefers to respond in voiceover, they point out that “they may have been given that information, but it is difficult to know exactly without knowing what samples Alphacast collects.”
“It is difficult to give an opinion because I do not know what their sample is, what data they collect, where they take it from, how frequently and how they put together their weighting.“says the source.
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Lummi – IA
Likewise, he maintains that, from the consulting firm, “It is observed that some prices are falling, indicating deflation, while others are increasing at a slower rate than in previous months.“And he adds that, in this context, our analytical projections point to a decrease in the inflation rate, with a lower CPI for mid-April that could continue in May.
“However, it is important to consider that the core inflation may experience an increase mainly due to increases in regulated prices this month, especially in the case of gas,” he warns.
While, Sebastian Menescaldifrom EcoGo, comments: “We measure on Fridays. Until last week it was not like that. It was very low, but not deflation“.
Finally, Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation (LyP), reveals that, in the third week of April, the measurement showed a variation in “core” inflation of 1.5%.
Disparate prices: unregulated prices are detached from regulated ones
Beyond the weekly record, which has higher volatility, “The relevant data is that, in the four-week average, it stands at 6.7%“. That is, unregulated prices are clearly decelerating. With this dynamic, LyP estimates that the general CPI for April will close in the range 8.5%-9.0%. It would be the first single-digit month since October of last year.
In that sense, the expectations of inflation they continue to fall. In April, the median 12-month inflation expectations was 70%, less than half that at the end of 2023. If Congress also approves the Fiscal Package and the new version of the Bases Law, That would imply a new positive shock in the expectations of a change in direction and would help consolidate the decline in inflation more quickly. concludes Marí.
Source: Ambito
