It is not strange to hear people who say that They are worse than last year but they still trust the Government. In that sense, the latest survey from the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT) somehow put numbers to the sensation of consumers, who say they are wrong but who In a year the macroeconomy will be better.
This is revealed by the last Consumer Confidence survey prepared by the Finance Research Center (CIF) from that house of studies.
The index is prepared based on questions to the public about their personal situation and that of the country, compared to a year ago and projecting one year ahead. determined 37.17 points in April.
As it is an indicator that is assembled based on the difference between positive and negative answers, the maximum confidence would be located at 100 pointss while zero would indicate null support.
So that This month’s note shows that consumers are still distrustfulof the progress of the economy in a similar way to what happened last year in the government of Alberto Fernández, who had the same levels as Javier Milei now.
However, dAmong the meager results, there is a slight improvement month after month. In April there was an increase of 1.3% compared to March. The CIF report highlights that “it is the third consecutive monthly increase since the new president took office, accumulating an increase of 4.4% in three months.”
Data on consumer mood becomes relevant depending on the progress of the economy and political capacity of the government to maintain support for its adjustment planwhich requires a sharp drop in inflation.
In that sense, the economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina considered that Argentina is suffering a “very brutal” drop in economic activity, but estimated that between March and April “it will have hit the bottom.”
“Just as inflation is falling rapidly, the level of activity is also falling sharply. There is a recessionary process that continues to deepen, but we estimate that in March or April it will have hit the bottom,” he said.
According to the UTDT report, the subscript that marks the perception about personal situation of respondents compared to the previous 12 months marked a decrease of 13.18% (26.73 points), but improved 13.28% (56.97 points) when asked about the next 12 months. Both brands compared with responses from April 2023.
Instead, the subindex that reflects consumer perception of the macroeconomy in one and three years is much better. 56.17 points are obtained, which indicates positive expectations although not very high. This shows an improvement of 25.70% compared to April 2023.
When asked about the macro At one year the confidence index is 52.70 points and at 3 years it reaches 60 points.. The improvement compared to the brands that existed in the same month last year is 73.73% and 1.31% respectively.
Private consultants record similar data
Another confidence indicator developed by the Key consultant points out that the perspectives on the future of the macroeconomic situation and“They saw notable year-on-year growth during February 2024.”
The ICC showed last March that lThe personal situation of consumers improved 2.76% compared to the previous month, but accumulates a year-on-year decrease of 2.20%.
However, tol ask what the macroeconomic situation will be like in 12 months and how in 3 years, a monthly increase of 56.56% was recorded in March, and as in February, it is the only variable within consumer confidence that accumulates an increase in the interannual variation, with 27.32%.
Source: Ambito
