He GDP of Argentina It will fall 3.3% this year, deepening the fall in 2023 and being the country with the largest contraction in the world behind Saudi Arabia, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). However, the report clarified that it would rebound the following year with a growth of 2.7%, 0.1 points more than previously reported.
“GDP is expected to contract by 3.3% in 2024, before growing by 2.7% in 2025,” the OECD indicated in its new outlook report released this Thursday. In this sense, he pointed out that high inflation, the “considerable but necessary” fiscal adjustment of the government of Javier Milei and political uncertainty will weigh on private consumption and investment for most of this year. This represents a worsening compared to the February projection when the OECD estimated a fall in product of 2.3% for this year.
“High inflation, considerable but necessary fiscal adjustment, and political uncertainty will weigh on private consumption and investment for most of 2024. The gradual lifting of restrictions on imports and exchange controls will eventually drive the recovery of the domestic demandparticularly in 2025. The pent-up demand resulting from these restrictions will keep imports strong, while exports will continue their robust recovery,” the report said.
Last year andThe GDP contracted 1.6%, in a context of strong acceleration of inflation, which accumulated an increase of 211.4% in 2023, the highest rate in the world.
Inflation: what is the OECD forecast
Regarding inflation, the organization highlighted that “annual inflation reached 288% in Marchbut monthly price variations have begun to moderate” and observed that “inflation is visibly slowing” and projects that “Over time it will decrease more pronouncedly.”
In this sense, in February the OECD had projected an acceleration in prices of 250.6% annually and now estimates that it will be 208.1% for this year and 71.2% for 2025.
OECD: the global forecast
The World economy will grow by 3.1% in 2024, projected this Thursday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which increased its previous forecast by 0.2 points thanks to the dynamism in the United States.
“Cautious optimism has begun to take hold in the global economy, despite modest growth and the lingering shadow of geopolitical risks,” says the Paris-based organization in its latest quarterly report.
The document points out the strong disparity between countries based on the fall in inflation, the cuts in applied interest rates and the “greater or lesser” need for fiscal consolidation.
The United States sees its growth forecast increase to 2.6% in 2024, against a previously projected 2.1%. The world’s leading economy registered an expansion of 2.5% the previous year.
Among the positive aspects, the OECD points to the decline in inflation in 2023, which remains on a downward trajectory, “although at a modest pace.”
He chinese growth It remains even stronger and the OECD raises its projection to 4.9% in 2024, compared to the 4.7% previously forecast, mainly due to an expansionary fiscal policy.
In Latin Americathe organization improves Brazil’s forecast by 0.1 points to 1.9% in 2024, thanks to greater household consumption, while Mexico’s growth would be 2.2%, 0.3 points less than the one projected three months ago.
Source: Ambito
