In April, the total balance of loans in pesos to the private sector reached a level of $21.6 billion, representing an increase in the last 365 days of $12.5 billion, equivalent to 138.9% annuallyvalues that are below the inflation of the period, if the last twelve months are considered and taking into account that the indices corresponding to the month analyzed have not yet been released.
According to the estimates of different consulting firms that monitor the evolution of prices, the price corresponding to the month of April would be around 9% and the accumulated price in the last 12 months would be around 290%.
During the last month, the variation has been $1.5 trillion, which represents an increase of 7.6%, in nominal values, therefore, it would also be below the price increase projected for this period. This is clear from the latest report from First Capital Group.
““We have not yet observed a takeoff of financing in pesos to the private sector despite the efforts made by the financial sector to replace the investments that were previously destined to supply the public sector.”Explain Guillermo BarberoPartner at First Capital Group.
The personal loan line increased in nominal terms by 13.6% monthly, the balance increased to $2,826,982 million for the accumulated total, presenting an interannual growth of 113%, against the $1,327,076 million at the end of the same month of the year above, as can be seen from the document.
The BCRA strategy and interest rates
“As can be seen, the nominal increases indicated are well below the inflation of the year, but after several months, they finally manage to clearly surpass the inflation line, consequently showing growth in real terms. The reduction in the interest rate led by the BCRA in recent months has facilitated the expansion of credit lines. Given the expectation that the rate may continue to decline in the near future, financial entities are more likely to extend financing terms. These two factors combined make it possible to increase the capital lent to each individual.”explains Barbero.
Credit card operations recorded a total of $7,214,875 million, which means a nominal increase of 10.6% compared to the end of last month, and above the expected inflation values for this period. Interannual growth reached 176.8%, being below the estimated inflation levels for the year. consequently showing a decrease in real terms.
“After several months below the month’s inflation, real growth is observed in the portfolio financed with plastics during the month of April. The lowering of the rates that has been operating in recent months both in the “Cuota Simple” program and in the rest of the financing and the appearance of offers of interest-free installments on some items, are recovering in this consumer sector. However, some speculative buyers may be delaying their consumption while waiting for new drops in interest and nominal prices of the items,” Barbero confirmed.
And mortgage loans?
Regarding the mortgage credit lines, including those adjustable by inflation/UVA, during April they had a decrease of 0.2% with respect to the stock of $590,731 million of the previous month, accumulating a total balance at the closing of $589,352 million and a year-on-year increase of 47% all in nominal terms.
“The announcement of new lines adjustable by UVA by several entities of the Public and Private Sector have generated great expectations in the public due to a perception that real estate prices could be relegated to inflation. Although the balance of the loans will be updated by an index close to the CPI, it is understood that the properties could grow above it, generating some opportunities for buyers who use this tool,” says Barbero.
The collateral credit line presented a total portfolio of $1,110,533 million, growing 97.1% versus the portfolio at the end of the same month of 2023 of $563,343 million, once again below inflation.
“The variation with respect to the balance of the previous month marked a decrease of 1.9%, we observe a new month with nominal increases, but placements have fallen again with respect to the previous month in absolute terms. In this case, the public perception is that vehicles have values above inflation in recent years, which is why the appearance of financing with rates close to zero% is expected. as a way to correct prices that are out of reach of consumers,” he concluded.
In relation to the business loans, this line saw its balance increase by 5.5% in the month, below expected inflation, placing it with a portfolio stock of $8,693,391 million. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the increase is 143.6%, well below the CPI values expected for this period. “The general trend of the last year continues, where financing in pesos has been falling in real terms. No matter how much the active interest rate decreases, it is not possible to transfer that cost to prices given the general decrease in sales“, Explain.
Regarding loans in dollars, Compared to last month, the total amount has increased by 18.5%. Regarding the interannual variation, it showed an increase of 45.8%. The stock of loans in dollars is US$5,839 million. 71% of the total debt in foreign currency continues to be the line of commercial loans, which increased by 47.8% in the year and also decreased by 18.8% compared to the previous month. Exchange rate stability reinforces the selection of this financing, since the monetary authorities continue to express that they will not make sudden variations in the exchange rate in the short term.
Credit cards registered a year-on-year increase of 87.1%, although with an irregular monthly behavior, alternating increases and decreases. In April there was an increase of 21.7% compared to the previous month. The balance as of 04-30-24 amounts to US$421 million. “The possibility of canceling consumption in dollars with foreign currency avoids the use of the exchange rate applicable to the card, facilitating the use of plastic for users.”, he concluded.
Source: Ambito
