The aggressive lowering of interest rates that the Central Bank has been carrying out does not seem to translate into an increase in credit despite the fact that some financial entities try to boost some lines, such as mortgages. According to the consultants, inflation and the fall in activity will continue to negatively affect the traditional activity of banks.
“The demand and supply of loans will continue to be affected by the drop in activity and a inflation slowing down but still elevated. This is why nor we expect a great expansion of credit throughout the year”the consulting firm warned in its latest report LCG.
The report thus relativizes the effect of the falling interest rates that drives the central bankwhich in recent weeks has generated a greater supply of mortgage credits from several banks.
Also Several private analysts expect that banks will begin to increase the supply of consumer loansbecause supply and demand seem to have hit a floor in recent months.
“Financing to the private sector stopped its fall this month. Loans to companies varied by 0% real monthly,” highlighted the consultant. LCG specified that “the monthly decrease for the document discount line (-0.9% real), was more than offset by current account advances (+5% real), among others.”
In the comparison with the same period last year, the private report adds that “financing for companies accumulates a real contraction of 34.6%.”
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On the other hand, the private report indicates that “Consumer loans showed a slight rebound of 0.9% real monthly, breaking the streak of 5 consecutive months of decline.”
“Personal loans grew by 3.5%, more than offsetting the declines in credit card financing (-0.1%) and others (-7.3%). In annual terms, consumer loans accumulate a real decrease of 36.4%,” the study details.
Meanwhile, it is highlighted that the Loans with Real Guarantee “contracted by 5.3% monthly in real terms and have been declining for 22 consecutive months.” “Mortgages were the ones that fell the most with 8.6% real month-on-month while compared to a year they collapsed 53.7%.
“Consumer credit and business loans “They seem to have reached a floor after the deep decline that they have been showing since November 2023,” says the work.
For his part, The First Capital Group points out that last month loans in pesos to the private sector totaled $21.6 billion, with an interannual increase of $ 12.5 billion, andequivalent to 138.9%. “If we consider the last twelve months according to estimates made by economic analysts who follow the evolution of prices, the CPI corresponding to the month of April would be around 9% and the accumulated one in the last 12 months would be around 290%”, clarifies the note.
During the last month, The increase in loans to the private sector was $1.5 trillion, which represents an improvement of 7.6%, in nominal values.therefore, it would also be below the price increase projected for this period.
“There has not yet been a takeoff of financing in pesos to the private sector despite the efforts made by the financial sector to replace the investments that were previously destined to supply the public sector”, explained Guillermo Barbero, Partner at First Capital Group.
Slight improvement in consumer credit
Although most of the Year-on-year comparisons continue to give negative results, In the intermonthly periods, the trend was broken in the last month. There were improvements compared to inflation.
While the personal lines They rose 13% in April compared to March, credit cards increased 10.6%.
“The reduction in the interest rate led by the BCRA in recent months, have facilitated the expansion of credit lines. Given the expectation that the rate may continue to decline in the near future, Financial entities are more likely to extend financing terms. These two factors combined make it possible to increase the capital lent to each individual,” explained Guillermo Barbero.
Source: Ambito
