The inflation In May it would be below 5%, according to a weekly private study of price variations. lThe consulting firm ECoGo estimated that the projection for the current month concludes with an inflation of 4.6%.
“The estimate for the month is maintained,” stated the work of the firm directed by the economist Marina Dal Poggetto.
The report indicated that in the case of food, the price increase in the third week of the month was 1.2%. The Government aspires for general inflation to be less than 5% to consolidate the disinflation process, one of its main objectives.
“In my opinion the scheme is a dependent trap. Tell me how you get it”was a conclusion of the economist’s presentation during her presentation.
“For me the first contradiction is maintaining the 80-20% export liquidation (MULC-CCL) because as long as you continue like this you need a very strong recession to continue buying dollars,” he indicated.
Dal Poggeto continued his explanation by pointing out: “In the next three months the BCRA can continue buying dollars for the harvest, but if you lift this measure while the dollar continues to lag, it is inconsistent and you need a very strong recession to continue buying dollars.”
For the economist, the “second inconsistency is the sequence of lowering interest” with a devaluation rate of 2% monthly.
“If for inflation to be 4.6% in May we stop rate updates and today they also announce that we have to spend US$500 million to buy gas, which increases spending. How do we do it?”
Finally, he pointed to the change of the Central Bank’s passive repos for LECAPS held by the National Treasury that will generate maturity for 10 points of the product until the end of the year. In this case, he criticized that it is only a change of debtor without solving the underlying issue.
“There are beginning to be contradictions in the scheme and the question is why? The objective was to stabilize the demand for pesos to at some point ‘take the wheels off the boys’ bicycle’ and instead of taking the wheels off the children’s bicycle You screwed the boys,” he said.
Dal Poggetto defended himself against the criticism he received when he publicly stated that this program is “dependent.”
After listing his arguments he said in an ironic tone: “It’s not a dependent trap. Tell me how you get it out.”
Source: Ambito
