Providers of AI systems promise a golden future in which computers do boring, routine jobs. But many workers have to work hard to avoid being among the AI losers.
If systems with artificial intelligence are quickly introduced in companies, many employees in Germany will have to prepare for serious professional changes. According to a current study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), published in Düsseldorf, up to three million jobs in Germany would be affected by a change by 2030, which corresponds to seven percent of total employment.
Many job changes in prospect
The McKinsey researchers’ scenario assumes an accelerated introduction of AI systems in the US and Europe. This could lead to the automation of almost a third of working hours by 2030. By 2035, this figure could even rise to 45 percent in the EU. According to calculations, almost twelve million job changes could be necessary in Europe and the United States by 2030. In Europe, this corresponds to 6.5 percent of current jobs.
The study authors see this trend as a danger that the labor market will become negatively divergent. On the one hand, highly qualified and above-average paid jobs will hardly be filled. On the other hand, there is a danger of an oversupply of workers in the low-wage sector. In Europe, the proportion of highly paid jobs could rise by 1.8 percentage points, while the proportion of low-paid jobs could fall by 1.4 percentage points.
Office jobs particularly affected
The McKinsey researchers see the biggest changes coming to office jobs in the administrative areas of companies and public institutions. More than every second job change caused by AI (54 percent) in Germany falls into this area. Along with Italy, Germany is particularly affected because office support jobs make up a high proportion of total employment. Customer service and sales followed at 17 percent, while production activities were affected at 16 percent.
Employees potentially affected by this can best protect themselves from being sidelined by AI through training and other qualification measures. According to the study, the demand for technical skills will increase significantly, by 25 percent in Europe alone. But social and emotional skills are also more in demand (plus 12 percent).
Productivity growth could increase
Under these conditions, McKinsey researchers see the economic consequences as positive: through an accelerated introduction of artificial intelligence and effective further training of employees in the European economy, the annual productivity growth rate in Europe could be increased to three percent by 2030.
The study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) examined the most important economic and social developments up to 2030 in the USA and ten European countries, including Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Great Britain, Sweden, Italy, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Poland. In addition, more than 1,100 board members of companies in Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain and the USA were surveyed.
Source: Stern
