Nine activity sectors that make up the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) recorded falls in March.
Economic activity plummets: which sectors were most affected
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Nine sectors of activity that make up the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) registered falls in March, according to the interannual comparison of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), among which stand out Construction (-29.9%) and Manufacturing Industry (-19.6%)With Wholesale, retail trade and repairs (-16.7%) .
In summary, Economic activity according to the EMAE accumulates a drop of 5.3% in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period of the previous year. In seasonally adjusted terms, the drop is close to 3% compared to the previous quarter.
Going forward, “it is expected that the dynamics will be similar to what has been experienced so far: sectors oriented to the domestic market in negative territory, which are partially compensated by sectors with export capacity, as is the case of mining and the agricultural sector. Given the high seasonality that agriculture presents in the second quarter, it remains to be seen if the recovery of the sector will be able to reverse what was recorded in activity in general,” ACM indicated.
“The 1.4% monthly drop in the EMAE was a figure that was within what was expected. Various sectoral indicators had already anticipated the poor performance of the economy in that month and the first quarter of the year ended with an average drop of 3%. Between March and April we expect the fall to find its bottom, although the sectoral analyzes for the fourth month of the year are mixed, it is still not clear what the net result was,” he said. Lautaro Moscheteconomist at the Freedom and Progress Foundation.
And he added: “What we do have clear is that The economy began to fall in September of last year and has accumulated a decline of 6.1%of which 4.4 percentage points took place in the last quarter of 2023 and the remaining drop (-1.7p.p.) was typical of the first quarter of 2024.”
Regarding the speed of recovery, the expert said that will be related to several factors to take into account. First of all, he mentioned the exit of the stocks and its consequent investment incentive in Argentina And in second place, credibility in macroeconomic stability.
For the first thing, “in the last week we have seen great progress in cleaning up the Central Bank’s balance sheet, which allowed the stock of repos to drop substantially in pursuit of greater Treasury debt. While, to achieve the second objective, it will be essential that the Bases Law be unblocked in Congress, given its content that solidifies the change in direction of the Argentine economy.”
Source: Ambito
