The slow advance of the Bases law and the fiscal package in Congress continues to be the epicenter of the attention of investors, who are looking for signs of support for the changes proposed by Javier Milei.
Milei, who assumed the country’s presidency last December, recently said that the legislative delay in approving their proposals plays against the expectations of investors and this led to the dollar will reach record values
In his speech for the celebration of May 25 on Saturday, the president stated that he will apply a “significant” tax reduction after Congress passes the bill.
The focus this week will be on the Senate, in addition to the fact that consumer confidence for April will be known on Thursday, recalled a report from Balanz.
Bases Law: the key to the market
“The project (being discussed by the Senate) will surely undergo changes, so he must return to Deputies. This opens a waiting period of a few weeks to know the final result of the negotiations between the government and the opposition for the basic law and the government’s fiscal initiatives,” estimated the consulting firm Delphos Investment.
It is speculated that the project will return to (the Chamber of) Deputies “given the characteristics of the Senate and the influence that the system of fiscal transfers to provinces that exists in Argentina generates on its decisions,” said the Mediterranean Foundation in a report.
“The non-approval of the bases law and fiscal law will confirm the political weakness of the government in the construction of a legislative majority, that allows generating the incentives to generate a government program of growth and development. Inevitably, “It will generate greater uncertainty in macroeconomic variables and postpone economic recovery.”said economist Joaquín Marque, from UG Valores.
Consumption, reserves and dollar: the analysis of the city
“The adjustment of the public sector continues, which will affect public consumption, which It can only be mitigated with an increase in private consumption,” estimated analyst Salvador Di Stefano.
“For private consumption to grow, it is necessary to reach higher levels of private investment than the current ones, otherwise the year 2024 will show a strong contraction of the GDP and in the year 2025 the rebound will depend on the investment projected by the private sector,” he added.
“The presence or absence of exchange delay is once again the topic of discussion and will surely continue to be for the coming months. The arguments on both sides of the new rift are multiple. In my opinion, it is an issue to worry about. Argentina is becoming more expensive in dollars,” said economist Matías Surt, from the consulting firm Invecq.
“We continue to consider the recovery of liquid reserves of the central bank (BCRA) as the key factor in the complex interrelation of financial, economic and social issues,” said VatNet Financial Research.
“After the great initial achievement of stabilizing, ordering and giving rise to a general hopeful optimism, so far the initiatives to obtain a strong income of foreign exchange have been limited: investments, debts, liquidation of exports and so on; only the last bullet of a lax whitewashing with inscrutable results“, he pointed.
Source: Ambito
