While there is debate over what form the exit from the recession, whether it will be in a V or with the shape of a kind of pipe –which would mark a slow and costly recovery -, the last Data from the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL) support the second hypothesis.
According to Industrial Production Index (IPI) of the entity, the activity recorded in April a drop of 14.9% year-on-yearly with it in the first quarter of 2024 accumulated a contraction of 11.3%.
“The scenario does not allow us to anticipate an accelerated exit towards the recovery of the industry in the short term,” FIEL warned in its report.
The work indicates that last month almost all branches of manufacturing activity had sharp declines, with a few exceptions. “The production of paper and pulp and textile inputs equaled the level of activity recorded in April of last yearwhile among the remaining branches, with the exception of chemicals and plastics, they showed a less profound contraction than that observed in March,” the report states.
Industrial production: the accumulated data for the first quarter
The FIEL survey indicates that in In the first quarter of 2024, activity accumulates a decline of 11.3% compared to the same period last year.
“With regard to the performance of the industrial branches in the first four months of the year, with the exception of the production of paper and pulp and textile inputs that register a production level similar to that of the same period in 2023all branches show a contraction in productive activity,” highlights the entity.
According to the report, “the The greatest decline in the period was recorded in the production of non-metallic minerals with a drop of 32.1% in the year-on-year comparison.” They followed him automotive industry with a drop of 22.6%, basic metal industries, 17.8%; metalworking, 15.4% and the production of chemical and plastic inputs, which contracted 11.7%.
With a lower than average drop, the cigarette shipments with a drop of 10.2%, the production of the food and beverage branch, 6% and the oil process, 2.7%.
On the other hand, the production of textile inputs equaled, with a drop of just 0.2%, the level of production accumulated between January and April 2023, while that of paper and pulp slightly exceeded it, 0.6%.
From the perspective of type of goods producedall continue to make a contribution to the contraction of the industry in the first four months.
“In the period, the greatest accumulated decline corresponds to production of capital goods with a drop of 18.6% in the comparison with the first four months of 2023,” says FIEL.
On the other hand, the report states that “in the case of durable consumer goods, production between January and April was 17.9% lower than that of the same period last year. The results are explained by the decline in the production of automobiles and utility vehicles, machinery and equipment, and durable white goods.
With a less than average loss, the intermediate use goods that registered a contraction of 10.6% in the period, while non-durable consumer goods showed a decline that reached 6.6% in the quarter in the interannual comparison.
Source: Ambito
