In the first half of 2022, it will be more promising to invest in equity mutual funds, and in the second – in bond funds. Ilya Kupreev, portfolio manager of Sberbank Asset Management, announced this to Izvestia on Wednesday, January 5th.
“The most attractive this year looks like funds of shares of the broad market, raw materials and financial sectors, as well as government bonds. Among the potentially more profitable, but also risky areas, it is worth noting the market of electric cars, biotechnology and the development of the space industry, “said Kupreev.
According to him, people are looking for new opportunities to invest their own funds, not only because of the New Year’s bonuses, the 13th salary and the expiration of the term of bank deposits. Also, the so-called Christmas rally usually comes to the market – a historically confirmed rise in the stock market. Thus, the growth of the S&P 500 index after Christmas over seven trading sessions grew 78% of the time from 1958 to 2021. And investors on average during this period received an average return of 1.3%.
“This year is no exception, players in the stock market are also expecting a“ pleasant bonus ”and an increase in profitability, which is especially important due to growing inflation and uncertainty on global financial markets,” the specialist said.
According to the expert, the growth of stock markets will continue in the new year. This will be facilitated by continued growth of the global economy “at a steady pace”, lower inflationary pressures “due to expansion of bottlenecks” in supply chains, “relatively high prices” for commodities, as well as the maintenance of generally stimulating policies by the governments and central banks of the leading countries of the world.
Kupreev believes that the European stock market looks more attractive compared to the US market due to a relatively lower valuation, a greater bias of the indices towards cyclical companies and a higher sensitivity to the likely removal of lockdowns.
The Russian stock market, he said, could become “the main beneficiary of a favorable environment in global capital markets” due to the high share of cyclical and commodity securities in the indices, as well as one of the highest dividend yields. In addition, Russia has a stable economy compared to the economies of other developing countries in general and in each industry in particular, he stressed.
According to Sberbank Asset Management’s expectations, at the end of 2022 the Moscow Exchange Index will exceed 4400 points.
Kupreev said that oil will remain attractive in the first half of 2022. Cyclical sectors, including raw materials and energy, benefit from economic growth, but in the second half of the year, growth, he said, could slow down.
He also called the IT sector promising, but the prices for securities of such companies are quite high, so you need to invest for a period of three years or more and be prepared for “serious price fluctuations at certain moments.” In addition, it is worth noting promising “new” sectors of the economy, such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, biotech, space, he added.
The specialist believes that in order to reduce the risk, it is advisable to invest part of the funds in bond mutual funds. Federal loan bonds (OFZ) currently look promising due to relatively high current rates, he said.
“In 2022, this trend is likely to reverse, as the cycle of tightening monetary policy in Russia is close to its end. This, in turn, will lead to higher bond prices and double-digit total income, coupled with coupon payments. OFZs look attractive on the investment horizon of 1–2 years, ”he said.
For conservative investors, the expert sees certain attractiveness in OFZ-PK – issues with a floating coupon pegged to the Ruonia rate, which in turn is closely correlated with the key rate. They remain a more profitable and liquid alternative to deposits, have a minimal interest rate risk, and their coupons will grow with a further increase in the key rate.
On December 17, at a press conference after a meeting on a key rate, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that the worst financial decision in the case of investing is impulsiveness and acting under the influence of other people’s advice. When investing, she advised to proceed not from someone else’s example, but from her own analysis of income and expenses.
Source: IZ
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
