The sun did not rise on the 25th, the changes were precipitated and the caste became empowered

The Government will be able to show its first goal with the May retail inflation data which is around, according to the private sector, between 4% and 5%, and where for the first time the year-on-year figure will show a decrease. However, already It won’t be enough to calm your spirits either.s. The fact is that the surveys fresh out of the oven, which are already swarming among operators and investors, show that for the first time in several months inflation lowered its relative importance in the ranking of people’s concerns, although it continues to lead, and issues began to gain ground. such as unemployment and rate increases.

In financial meetings, the development of provincial conflicts is monitored daily, like the missionary, knowing that every month that the governors do not have the Income Tax, their treasuries will have liquidity problems, where even CABA itself no longer enjoys the elixir of income on interest from the Central Bank Bills (BCRA). While the President continues from trip to trip, today Today we don’t even hear siren songs from international investment funds., no one expects even a small amount of investment at the moment. Foreign visits decreased but it is true that in recent months the arrival of bankers and funds from abroad in search of a closer vision of the libertarian experiment was incessant. What is being seen more frequently is a new crack, but this time not in the political sphere but among economists, and in particular among those considered “of the stick”, that is, those who agree with liberal and orthodox ideas. More and more people are critical of the Government, its actions, its measures, its policies and its communication. This entails an effort of “bank the stop” from those closest to the ruling party, and above all from Javier Milei, of whom they call themselves “friends” before colleagues. That is why the latest crossing of swords between ultra-recognized “market friendly” professionals on the issue of exchange rate delay, inflationary deceleration and the balance of the BCRA, etc. that have left more than one speechless.

In this regard, the economist’s almost official harangue was widely commented Ricardo Arriazu in a conversation with investors, who despite everything took care on more than one occasion to deny that he was collaborating or advising Milei as some colleagues had let on, especially when the possibility of a currency competition regime appeared instead. of dollarization. In relation to this new crack, there are also more and more economists and consultants who complain about the official onslaught, the calls, the attacks and mistreatment at every opportunity that outlines some criticism of economic policy.

Warns for the end of excuses and the goal of triple two

The change of helm in the Chief of Staff led to several meetings between those close to the Casa Rosada and people of the brand new chief of ministers and in one of them the apparent good reception of the appointment by the marketalthough it was mixed with the release of the ruling, but it was more celebrated, with relief, the very good information about how the May collection is coming, surpassing even the most optimistic. Now it is expected what the course of the Law and package will be like since it is first discussed in general terms and then chapter by chapter. A connoisseur of the Legislative Palace explained that if the Senate approves with the respective modifications, the project will go back to the Deputies, where for better or worse it will determine its fate. Now, constitutionally, two scenarios can occur: the modified project is approved or Deputies insist on the original text. Despite official optimism and dialogue with caste, it may be an open ending. An old wolf of the market warned libertarian interlocutors that they better be prepared because once the law is approved, there will be no more excuses and people will want to see action and results. “Whatever comes is all yours, no more inheritance”, he sentenced. Several questions about the stocks and no answer, neither conclusive nor indicative. As in other recent times, there is now talk of triple two, as the desired objective of the Government, 2% “crawling”, 2% inflation and 2% interest rate. Very difficult. Almost no one sees it. And since all these people have savings and investments, in the end they began to share visions and bets, where they saw more comfort in positions of “carry” in the short curve, especially if it is money for working capital and in the long CER section, the ““hard dollar” It seems that it is not convincing due to the parity risk.

One of the private interlocutors pointed out that For the market, the biggest risk is that before the end of the year the real exchange rate returns to the levels prior to the devaluation of last August. In another meeting, there was a lot of speculation about the destination of the almost $14 billion from the Treasury parked in the BCRA and in the system, after the last bill tender. A distrustful City consultant placed the traditional emphasis on the mid-year financial strangulation with payment of bonuses, etc. There a fund manager threw out the information, from a brand new survey that has not yet seen the light of day, that There are more than 60% of the population who are afraid of losing their job or having a family member lose one., which will mark the field of social tolerance in the face of the pain of adjustment. Another colleague more concerned about the CAMMESA mess recommended monitoring the bonds of companies linked to the issue that in the last rounds saw the volume of business increase in the secondary market. In this regard, a man from the Government pointed out that it could be feasible for the treasuries of the companies involved to begin to close positions in anticipation of a potential wave of liquidations, and recalled that the last companies to accept the debt agreement receive Bonares.

Market Women’s Blend

There were also meetings for women in the market, such as the Summit organized by ConoSur Investments (CSI) at the Alvear Hotel where they enjoyed a day of learning and connection that started with an enriching talk by Mariana Pinto, Head of Business Development at CSI, who addressed fundamental topics such as financial well-being and the professional path that each woman travels. But there was also time to take a breath and immerse yourself in the world of tea with the help of Ines Berton, owner of Tealosophy, who told her story and provided her knowledge, and in the end each of the guests created their own tea blend. At a lively table of multinational executives, the antitrust lawsuit against Ticketmaster and its matrix Live Nation Entertainment that the US Department of Justice “plugged” into it. Apparently it accuses them of operating an illegal monopoly that inhibits competition and of inflating the prices of tickets to events, that is, illegal and anti-competitive conduct to exercise monopolistic control on the live events industry in the US at the expense of fans, artists, small promoters and operators. The threat aims to dissolve Live Nation-Ticketmaster and about 30 states have already joined the lawsuit. An expert on the subject said that the straw that broke the camel’s back were the failures after the sale of tickets for the Eras de tour. Taylor Swift in 2022. They say that the company defended itself and blamed the increase in ticket prices on the rise in production costs, the popularity of artists, online sales that reveal the public’s willingness to pay much more than what they expected. Primary tickets cost. An executive knowledgeable in the business recalled that Live Nation and Ticketmaster merged in 2010, creating a dominant entity in the live events industry, and noted that through Ticketmaster, Live Nation controls approximately 80% or more of the main tickets for concerts in the main venues. The libertarian government could take note.

There was also talk about the interest rate in the US and one diner recommended changing the subject because if the Nobel Prize winner in Economics himself, Paul Krugman, had stated that it is not at all clear where medium-term rate levels are heading, and that he was completely confused about interest rates, what was left for the rest of us! There was some gossip about the transfer book and mention was made of Balanz joining John Montgomery (former Santander where he managed Latin American fixed income) for its UK team as director and Senior Emerging Markets Trader. Montgomery’s arrival follows the recent addition of Pardeep Dhillon (ex Fideuram and ex Macquarie Bank), another Senior Emerging Markets Trader. They also hired Pablo Waldman (former Inviu, StoneX, Banco Comafi) as Team Leader reporting to Andrea Manavella. Something that was also jokingly commented on was the Biden campaign team’s publication of a job offer from a “meme manager”which betrays the fact that the Democratic candidate is losing support among young voters and that a few well-executed memes could reverse that situation.

In terms of international events, the ones that had the most echo were those of BECON Investment Management, which brought together several fund managers in London to discuss experiences and business perspectives in Latin America. Opening the event was best-selling British author Tim Marshall which provided insight into the current geopolitical landscape and potential implications for investors. The other much talked about event was EMTA in Zurich where global macroeconomic prospects, the effects of the US elections, geopolitics, emerging market asset class flows, the South African elections, structural reforms in Egypt and Argentina and the restructuring of Ukraine. The EMTA forum featured Hans-Christian Wietoska (Deutsche Bank), David Cowan (Citi), Peter Wietrak (Julius Baer), Sergio Trigo Paz (UBP) and Carlos de Sousa (Vontobel).