During May, Loan variation reached a shocking increase of $3 billion which means an increase of 14.4%, in nominal values, which makes it the first month since October 2023 to have a positive variation in real terms. This was revealed by a report by FIRST CAPITAL GROUP, which in the analysis of the main lines of loans highlighted the increase in the use of credit cards and commercial loans.
¨They are beginning to see the results of the financing replacement policy that previously targeted the public sector and now seeks the private sector of the economy, he assured Guillermo Barbero, Partner at First Capital Group.
In May The total balance of loans in pesos to the private sector reached a level of $24.7 billion, representing an increase in the last 365 days of $15 billion.equivalent to 157% annually, values that are below the inflation of the period, if we consider the last twelve months.
The survey clarified, in this regard, that if we take into account the projections of economic studies that analyze the variations in the consumer price index, that corresponding to the month of May would be around 5% and that accumulated in the last 12 months would be around 280%.
Line by line: how was the performance in May
The personal loan line increased in nominal terms by 22.6% monthly, the balance reached $3,465,934 million for the accumulated total, presenting a year-on-year growth of 151.8%, compared to $1,376,215 million at the end of the same month of the previous year.
¨As can be seen, the nominal increases indicated are well below the inflation of the year, but for the second consecutive month they are positioned above the level of monthly inflation, consequently maintaining growth in real terms. The downward trend in lending rates continued, and consequently, financial institutions offer longer terms“These two factors combined, enable policyholders to access greater amounts of financing,” explained Barbero.
The operation through Credit cardsaccording to the latest data reported by the Central Bank, records a balance as of the last day of last month of $7,877,139 million, which means an increase of 9.2% nominal compared to the end of April, and above the expected inflation values for this period.
Interannual growth reached 170.8%, remaining below the estimated inflation levels for the year, consequently showing a decrease in real terms.
¨In this segment we also have the second consecutive month of increase in real terms after several months of being below inflation. More and more businesses are adding to the offer of sale in installments with or without interest through the program Simple Fee or with private financing. The reappearance of plans with up to 12 installments is also observed. All of these are commercial and financial actions that favor the recovery of credit portfolios, explained Barbero.
As for the mortgage credit linesincluding those adjustable by inflation/UVAduring May they had an increase of 0.6% compared to the stock of $589,352 million of the previous month, accumulating a total balance at the closing of $592,793 million and an interannual increase of 42.8% all in nominal terms. This month the nominal increase is resumed, although in very modest terms.
¨Despite the interest aroused in demand by the new operations implemented by the Banks, No significant growth is expected until a more auspicious economic outlook for the family economy is consolidated.¨, assured Barbero.
The collateral credit line presents, according to data published by the BCRA, a portfolio balance at the end of May 2024 of $1,240,066 million, growing 103.5% versus the portfolio at the end of the same month of 2023 of $609,463. millions, remaining below inflation again. The variation with respect to the balance of the previous month marked an increase of 11.7%, establishing an important recovery in both nominal and real terms.
¨As we mentioned in our previous report, The appearance of sales plans in installments with rates close to 0%, drove the demand for new collateral loans“, despite the crisis that the automotive sector is still going through,” he continued.
In relation to commercial loans, this line saw its balance increase by 15.8% in the month, well above expected inflation, placing it with a portfolio stock of $10,066,606 million. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the increase is 173.3%, in this case below the CPI values expected for this period.
¨This item clearly led the sector’s recovery with a shocking increase in loans in nominal and real terms.. We will have to analyze more months to deduce if this is a trend towards recovery or just an isolated phenomenon as we have had in the recent past,” Barbero revealed.
ANDAs for loans in dollars, compared to last month, the total amount showed an increase of 10.2%. Regarding the interannual variation, it increased 63.1%. The stock of loans in dollars was US$6,437 million. 72% of the total debt in foreign currency continues to be the line of commercial loans, which increased 71.5% in the year and they also rose 12.8% compared to the previous month. The statements of the economic and monetary authorities, ruling out sudden variations in the official exchange rate in the short term, facilitate the recovery of financing in foreign currency.
Credit cards registered a year-on-year increase of 65.1%, although with an irregular monthly behavior alternating increases and decreases. In May there was an increase of 10.2% compared to the previous month. The balance as of the last day of May amounts to $464 million. Portfolio balances are approaching those existing before the pandemic, which indicates a normalization of operationsthe report stated.
Source: Ambito
