The survey of market expectations (REM), published by the Central Bank, projects that unemployment will grow. But by 2025 a leveling off is expected.
In the middle of the economic recessionthe unemployment in the private and public sector grows month by month and the market watches this indicator closely. The companies and the State itself terminated employee contracts, as well as other registered employees, for which It is expected that this indicator will grow.
In that context, the survey of market expectations (REM)which publishes the central bankprojects that the unemployment grows both in the first quarter and in the second, but in the third there is a leveling off of the indicator.
Unemployment will grow in 2024, according to the market
In the first quarter, they expect the unemployment is located in the 7.4%while that indicator, in the last quarter of 2023 the indicator stood at 5.7%, according to INDEC. The unemployment indicator predicted by the REM showed an increase of 0.4 percentage points (pp) compared to the previous report.
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Meanwhile, in the second quarter the market expects the unemployment rises to 7.6%, 0.1 pp more than in the previous survey. And for the third quarter, they project a slowdown 7.5%.
By 2024 it is expected that the unemployment close in 7.5% and for the following year it is estimated that it will slow down to 7.3%, but at no time will unemployment return to 5%.
In the REM, up to 3 quarterly estimates of the open unemployment rate and 2 annual periods are surveyed.
Source: Ambito
