Meanwhile, someone like Sturzenegger would play a role as a deregulator of the economy and that implies that it has to modify countless regulations that, in many cases, can affect the market position of one company or another, for example. This can bring some headaches for Caputo when it comes to negotiating capital inflows with companies. And it is that Many companies benefit, in some way, from some regulatory obstacles, so a change in the rules of the game could modify the business equation.
“It must be taken into account, if a plan of deregulation, would cross all economic sectors. It ranges from, for example, the labor market, through the process of buying a car, to the rules of the financial market. Caputo, on the other hand, if you have some rules of the game that you can negotiate when managing any capital income, the better,” describes an expert on the subject.
It could be summarized in that, While one has the objective of negotiating the inflow of capital, the other aims at a less regulated economy and more based on market rules and this approach of Sturzenegger, in some senses, can end up “spitting the soup”, as they say, to Caputo. Let’s think, for example, if they lifted all the benefits to the industry in Tierra del Fuego, Caputo and Milei would have a serious problem carrying out their current negotiation strategy with the governors, companies, the IMF and international funds.
Differences in monetary policy and the Central Bank that each one wants
On the other hand, in monetary and exchange matters, it is not so clear what the underlying vision of the current minister isbut, based on the policy he is applying, one could say that, while “Sturze” has a vision of a more traditional Central BankCurrently, the monetary regulator, headed by Santiago Bausili, Caputo’s former partner, governs a negative interest rate dynamic with the objective of liquefying the liabilities of the BCRA and the pesos of the economy. This, accompanied by a rhythm of daily microdevaluations (“crawling-peg”) of the peso of 2% per month.
Likewise, it could be said that Sturzenegger’s imprint is more academic and theoretical than Caputo’s. “He is inflexible with the plan that he designs and that he believes will work,” says a source close to the Government. It is exhaustive that State intervention is a hindrance to the economy, in line with Milei’s speech. But, we know well that there is a distance from saying to doing and reality has shown the president that A certain amount of pragmatism is very necessary when it comes to management.
AND That is where he gets closer to Caputo, who has the mark of a more measured man when it comes to politics. He is an expert in bond and debt management and is more open to listening to other opinions than Sturzenegger. “Caputo is more receptive regarding politics,” they explain close to the ruling party.
One seeks to reverse his image in management, the other must prove the sustainability of his plan
Another counterpoint is that Sturzenegger is a person who is not known for success in terms of management. “The two times he was an official, with Cavallo and with Macri, he had quite poor management,” an expert in economic history tells this medium. While, Caputo is seen as more assertive and is more linked to international investors and funds.
For his part, Sturzenegger has the debt of showing some economic success for several administrations and he is convinced that this time he will succeed. From the perspective of a political analyst consulted by this medium, the popular imagination indicates that who today is one of Milei’s favorite ministers “has a vision more concentrated on a final objective, more of a tunnel with a focus on a destination, which does more to the ordering of the macroeconomy”.
AND who aspires to join the Cabinet in the Modernization portfolio appears to be a more broad-spectrum thinkerPerhaps closer to the president’s thinking because both are more generalists about the economy. Furthermore, both have greater aspirations for structural changes, while Caputo is focused on his mission to refloat the shipmore than in a refounding line of the country, which is that of Sturzenegger.
It is clear that The current Minister of Economy managed to slow down the evolution of inflation, achieve a fiscal surplus and improve the BCRA’s balance sheet, but there are certain doubts regarding the possibility of continuing these successes. “You need to define a phase 2 program, which includes everything from a new agreement with the IMF to a budget for next year,” warns a city economist.
And, in this need for redefinition, the market states that it cannot continue 18 months from now with the “crawling peg” of 2% for the dollar. He needs to outline a new course and, in that framework, an entry by Sturzenegger, with a plan to deregulate the economy, which is a “step on callus” approach for the private sector, seems somewhat threatening to him.
Caputo/Sturzenegger coexistence: mission impossible or a matter of time?
In short, to a large extent, these different views also lie in the conception of the economy that each of them has. While the “Messi” of finance has a more financial profile, “Sturze” has one more of a macroeconomist and points to sustainability as the axis of an economic program with a macro and a micro vision, in the style of Domingo Felipe Cavallo, for example. Meanwhile, the current economic plan has some macro and other micro elements, but more “sui generis” and, now, another long-term stage should begin.
Most likely, despite these differences, both will have to coexist in the Cabinet soon., yes, finally, Sturzenegger joins in a new stage of Milei’s plan because, for now, he cannot remove Caputo from office. He needs it to give an image of continuity. But, everything indicates that the minister is waiting for the right moment to agree to the incorporation of this new figure, who could challenge him for power. That power that he has monopolized under the idea that he needs more control of the areas of the economy to control spending.
Which is it? It’s hard to know, but many risk that it could wait to close a new agreement with the IMF and the approval of the Bases in Deputies lawafter having passed through the Senate.
He The objective is that, whenever this move is defined, Caputo already has the funds secured for the beginning of the lifting of the stocks.. But it remains to be seen if the patience of those who wait in the pits will be enough and the president’s anxiety to begin to follow the most refounding path that he wants for Argentina, in which Sturzenegger plays a key role, resists.
Source: Ambito
