It should be remembered that while waiting from June data on price dynamicsPresident Javier Milei admitted that in June there will not be a zero deficit and in addition, it will come with a rebound in inflation, as expected by the main consulting firms that estimate a variation of between 5% and 6% due to the resumption of increases in electricity and gas rates. postponed during the previous month, added to the acceleration signals in food.
In that context, a report from Coninagro presents an interesting analysis of the evolution of food prices. The research includes a revealing table that classifies foods into two main categories: those whose prices exceed inflation and those that are lagging behind, which makes it possible to identify which productive sectors are managing to stay afloat and which are facing difficulties in the context of the crisis. current economy.
The report is conclusive in stating: “Inflation in the last 12 months reached 276.4%, while food increased 289.4%. During the month they grew slightly above the average (4.8%)”.
Thus, the foods that increased the most in the month were: Tomato, onion and yerba mate, while those that increased the least: orange, sugar and lemon. Meanwhile, those that increased the most in the last year: rice, onion and milk. Those that increased the least: orange, sugar, and potato.
The figure for oranges stands out, which fell 34.1% in the last month. Likewise, rice, which has experienced a significant decrease in production during the 2023/24 campaign due to the drought, and also faces large international demand at high prices. It increased 638% in current prices, which is equivalent to 96% in constant prices.
Inflation projection
The consulting firms surveyed by the Central Bank foresee a slight increase for the month of June and a slight slowdown in inflation in the coming months. The inflation projection for the next 12 months, according to the REM, stands at 69.3%.
“It is worth clarifying that so far this year, the consultants have projected inflation above the level that was actually seen,” says Coninagro.
Coninagro-Inflation projection.png
In the Food sector, a slight revaluation is observed that influences other indicators. An example of this is the Price Index at Origin and Destination (IPOD) developed by the Regional Economies area of the Argentine Confederation of Medium Enterprises (CAME).
This index evaluates the difference between the price received by the producer and that paid by the consumer. In May, this gap was 3.3 times, which means that for every $1 received by the producer, the consumer paid $3.3 at the shelf.
Source: Ambito
