The exchange rate gap between the free dollar rates is at levels close to 50%, experts are analyzing what problems could occur and harm the Government’s actions.
The gap between official dollar and the parallel exchange rates This week it approached levels close to at 50%which generated certain concerns in government. The thing is that, according to experts, it could complicate the export and import exchange schemes, even delaying the convergence of different types of changes to lift the restriction.
It should be noted that this Thursday, the blue dollar stopped its recent rise and closed to $1,355 for sale – after touching $1,380 on Wednesday –according to a survey by Ambit in the caves of the City, which leaves the gap at 48.7%. For its part, the CCL rose to $1,345.70, with a spread of 47.6%Meanwhile he MEP closed almost stable at $1,331.96, with a gap of 46.1%.
Consulted by AmbitGustavo Quintana, a specialist in this field, explained that as the gap grows, Pressures and speculations begin on the levels of the official exchange rate. “This is not new, it always generates a certain dose of uncertainty, but I think we still have to wait a few days to see if these price levels and gap are maintained,” she said.
Dollar with a 50% gap: what risk do they bring
For the economist Jorge Neyrothe consequences of the gap approaching 50%, are quite moderate. One of the effects he mentioned is that it could “increase the payment costs of importers who buy CCL to export abroad.” But, “the main consequence is the need for this gap to be reduced in order to bring closer the convergence scenario between the different exchange rates“, he expressed.
For his part, the economist Amilcar Collante He added: “On the foreign trade side, a gap that shoots up above 50% generates a distortion in the retention of exports or in the advancement of importsespecially if the Government wants, in the medium term, to lift the restrictions.”
The expert also said that, although this administration, “There are still some steps left to lift the restrictions”a gap of 20% is not the same as one above 50%. “A CCL above $1,300 throws a lot of the scheme out of whack,” he stressed.
He also warned that another problem that could occur is that “The dollar card is being arbitraged, that is, you can end up having more consumption abroad” and in turn, “a higher financial dollar can increase the pressure to have a greater expectation of devaluation.”
Finally, Collante warned that “in general terms, the Government is entering a phase in which it will not continue accumulating dollars at the rate it had been doing. There is a normalization of imports that does not allow the monetary authority to accumulate reserves”.
“In turn, in the second half of the year, the Central Bank will be a net seller. Financial dollars must come in so that the market does not see gross reserves falling. If dollars do not enter through the financial side or through money laundering, the expectation of devaluation is exacerbated and all of the above is complicated,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
