He Official CPI for June will be announced on July 12 by the statistical institute. And the slight rebound in inflation that private consultants predict for June is due, above all, to the electricity and gas rate increases for June. Andfor July, The Government postponed a new increase in serviceswith the aim of reducing the pressure on price variation for that month.
The latest official data of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) placed inflation at 4.2% during May. In this way, the price variation marked a sharp slowdown Regarding April (-4.6 percentage points – pp)when The figure was 8.8%. This number marked the first year-on-year decline in almost a year, standing at 276.4%.. Meanwhile, the accumulated inflation in the year reached the 71.9%.
June inflation: how much was it?
Among the private sector consulting firms surveyed by Ambit, he CPI was located between the 4.9% and the 5.4%, and show a rebound compared to May, when inflation slowed down to 4.2%.
From Orlando Ferrares & Associatesone of the most accurate measurements, estimates inflation for the sixth month of the year at 6.6% and year-over-year inflation is 273.9%. Meanwhile, the “core” inflation was 3% monthly and 256.3% annually.
The consultant EcoGowhich heads Marina Dal Poggetto and is recognized for its accurate predictions on price variations, estimated that the inflation would be located in the 5.2%. Econometricsmeanwhile, coincided with the calculation of EcoGoand positioned the June CPI at 5.2%. He attributed the “slight rebound” of the index to “impact on the recomposition of rates that was carried out in the month”.
Food and drinks
About the heading Food and drinksthe economist Rocio Bisang, of EcoGo, He estimated that it would be around 3.6%, including those “consumed outside the home.”
For its part, the Freedom and Progress Foundation (LyP)anticipated the highest price indexat 5.4%, which would imply an advance of 1.2 pp compared to the previous month. According to the measurement of this research center, the interannual inflation would fall again, this time to 1.2 pp. 274.4%, but the cumulative would be positioned at 81.2%.
The rebound in price variation is explained by “the regulated pricesthat registered a monthly increase of 8.6%, mainly influenced by the updates to gas and electricity rates“On the other hand, the core CPI, which excludes regulated prices, rose by 4.0%,” explained LyP.
In addition, regarding the Government’s decision to postpone the increase in electricity and gas rates in July, LyP pointed out that “it would help the July index to get closer to the variation of the core component of the CPI (4%).”
The economists’ consultancy Maria Castiglioni and Camilo Tiscornia (C&T) reported that the inflation for Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) was positioned in 4.9% during Juneaccording to their measurements, above the 4.6% of calculated in May and 4.3% who reported the INDEC for that region.
Like all the consulting firms, they highlighted the rise in electricity and gas ratesto which they added the increase in salary of the building managerswhich weighed on the item of living place. In the GBA, the increase in the prepaid medicine He also put pressure on the inflationand made that health was the third area with the greatest progress.
To a greater or lesser extent, all consulting firms predict that the June price index rebounded, but the deceleration path may still continue, due to the postponement of the increase in electricity and gas rates for the current month.
Source: Ambito
