The cement shipmentsa proxy for the activity of the construction, fell 7.4% monthly in June. This way, The first indicators of last month do not give signs of a recovery of the economywhich appears to have stagnated after the March bottom.
According to data from the Portland Cement Manufacturers Association (PCMA)during the sixth month of the year were dispatched 725,580 tonswhen in May the figure had been 780,281. Also, In year-on-year terms, there was a collapse of 32.8%.
As for foreign trade in cement, imports accounted for 1.1% of total domestic consumption and showed a monthly contraction of almost 70%. In parallel, exports contracted by 63%.
The AFCP figures may indicate that construction is operating above the levels of February-March-April, but that it is still not close to the previous situation, which was much better than the current one.
The economy is increasingly moving away from a “V” shaped rebound
According to a survey released on Tuesday by Audemus, the consulting firm of former Minister of Productive Development, Matías Kulfas, the available data linked to economic activity in May showed a heterogeneity between sectors.
On the one hand, capital-intensive industries such as steel and automobiles saw a further decline in production compared to the previous month. This was reflected in a drop in the quantities of imported capital goods.
In parallel, other indicators, such as oil and gas production or those related to consumption such as vehicle registrations and sales, showed an improvement. Cement shipments had also grown monthly in May, but recent data for June showed that this recovery was a mirage.
While most analysts agree that the bottom of the recession was reached in March, The rebound seems to be very far from the “V” that the Government had hoped for and pre-announced, and to have more of a “Nike pipe” or “saw” shape..
No recovery engine is perceived
None of the components of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are driving economic recovery at the moment. On the side of the consumptionAlthough there is beginning to be more credit for some transactions, the stagnation of wages (mainly for public employees and informal workers) is an impediment to greater dynamism.
Refering to investmentThe crisis in the construction sector and the uncertainty regarding the regulation of the Bases law and the liberalisation of capital controls are also putting a brake on betting in the country.
Likewise, it is expected that in the third quarter the exports contract due to seasonal factors, as the bulk harvest of soybeans and corn comes to an end.
Source: Ambito
