Private consulting firms surveyed by Ámbito expect June inflation to rebound and stand at above 5%. In this context, the parallel dollarswhich came from months of stability, but between May and June they jumped hard and this could have an impact on the consumer price index (CPI).
Although it is a volatile market, between May and June the Dolar blue climbed up $325 (+31.3%) and exceeded $1,400. Even in the wheel of this Monday, July 7, he rose to a record of $1,450then moderate and close in $1,440. The financialwhich also traded with great volatility between the fifth and sixth months of the year, advanced $258.05 (+26.6%) the CCL and $307.07 (+29.5%) the MEP. Meanwhile, the gaps closed June just below 50%but in the first rounds of July They overcame that key barrier and they tore off above the $1,400although they gave way by the second week of the month.
In this context, the economist Eric Paniagua of Epyca explained to Ambit that “It is expected that the increase in parallel dollars will generate greater expectations both in the devaluation of the official dollar and in the inflation that drives the general economy”.
“It is likely that the process of sustained inflationary slowdown that we have been seeing between March, April and May will be interrupted. In the last weeks of June and so far in July, there was an acceleration and it is feasible that the CPI is above the floor of between 3% and 4%, which it had been showing in recent months,” he added. Paniagua.
The rise of the dollar and the constant transfer to prices
Although over the years he became accustomed to the fact that Successive increases in the exchange rate are passed on to pricesthe economist of Analytica Rosario Vidaurreta He said that, at least in the survey carried out by the consulting firm in June, “no significant transfer to prices was observed”.
“The recession is one of the main explanations”said the economist about the transfer of the widening of the exchange rate gap from exchange rates to prices. “The gradual normalization in the payment of imports makes the alternative dollars do not have the same importance in price formation as they had during the last year,” concluded the analyst of Invecq, Manuel Cerdan.
In this sense, Vidaurreta analyzed that “If the government manages to calm the expectations of devaluation that have been raised in recent days, the transfer will probably remain low”.
For Paniagua “the last week of June will probably be affected by the increase in the exchange rate, particularly in the MEP and CCL, although it was not significant”, coinciding with Vidaurreta. Besides, highlighted the good development of the index in the first three weeks.
In contrast, the chief economist of the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL), Daniel Artanaassured that in the survey of the June inflation There was “contamination” due to the rise in the exchange rate.
“Inflation in June was probably higher than in May, but for the adjustment of regulated prices. The rest of the goods and services moved at a similar or slower pace than that seen in May,” Cerdan analyzed.
And it is that, according to the City CPICerdan is right, although it was above the variation of the previous month, it did so due to the strong increase in regulated products, in his case influenced by the rate increase and the increase in the value of the passage of subway.
Source: Ambito
