At the beginning of June, the Danube and its tributaries flooded numerous communities in southern Germany – this is only a small part of the global picture.
Floods, storms and other natural disasters caused 120 billion dollars in global damage in the first half of the year and cost 4,500 lives. According to the half-yearly disaster report by reinsurer Munich Re, the damage is lower than in the first half of 2023, but higher than both the ten-year and thirty-year averages. “If you put this into a longer period of time, the total damage is rising significantly,” said chief climatologist Ernst Rauch. Both major floods and the series of severe storms in the USA were noticeable in the first half of the year.
The bare figures: Of the 120 billion dollars in total economic losses, 62 billion was insured, according to Munich Re. The most expensive event was the New Year’s earthquake of magnitude 7.5 in Japan, which caused estimated total losses of around 10 billion dollars. In the first half of 2023, the total global losses caused by natural disasters were higher at 140 billion dollars, according to Munich Re, while the insured losses were slightly lower at 60 billion dollars. A key factor here was the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria in February 2023, which claimed more than 50,000 lives. In the earthquake region there, only comparatively few people and companies are insured against natural disasters.
Increasing disaster losses on average over the long term
Munich Re has been documenting the losses from natural disasters worldwide for many decades, as this is of great importance for calculating insurance premiums. “The ten-year average of economic losses is just under 90 billion dollars,” said Rauch. “The total insured losses show the trend even more clearly: the 62 billion dollars in the first half of this year compared to just 37 billion in the ten-year average. So we are almost seeing a doubling.”
Storms are occurring more frequently and becoming more severe
According to Munich Re, the fact that damage is increasing on average over the longer term is not only linked to the increasing frequency and severity of storms – a phenomenon that scientists believe is due to climate change. Rauch mentioned two unusual events in the first half of the year: “We not only had the floods here on our doorstep in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. The special feature was flooding in countries where major floods are atypical, such as the United Arab Emirates, especially Dubai, but also neighboring regions such as Oman.”
You have to look back 70 years in the statistics to find comparable events. “Something similar was observed in Brazil with rainfall and flooding on a scale that is unprecedented in the last 70, 80 years.”
North America particularly affected
The scientist sees the second anomaly in the many severe thunderstorms in the USA, where 1,250 tornadoes were counted from the beginning of January to the end of June alone. “Four of the five most expensive insurance events in the first half of 2024 were severe storms in the USA.”
The course of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic, which only ends in the fall, plays a major role in the second half of the year. One factor in this is the unusually high water temperatures in the North Atlantic, which have been occurring for some time.
Probability of severe hurricane season increased
“Record water surface temperatures are a key factor in the triggering and strength of tropical cyclones,” said climatologist Rauch. “The second factor is predicted by the American weather service NOAA, the beginning of a so-called La Niña phase.” Both increase the probability of an above-average frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
For insurers, the development means higher costs: “More frequent and more intense weather-related disasters mean that insurance companies are increasingly faced with high claim payouts,” said Rauch.
Source: Stern
