It turns out that the high-frequency data for July reflects of an incipient recovery in many sectors. While the vast majority of sectors increased in inter-monthly terms, it should be noted that these indicators are still – on average – 5% below the same month in 2023; in fact, Only two of the nine grew in annual terms“said the consultancy Invecq.
However, preliminary activity data for the seventh month of the year offer optimistic prospects for the Government, with some key indicators in greenindicating improvements compared to June. On an annual basis, the trend remains negative, but the declines are less pronounced than in previous months.
Economic rebound: what the city is analyzing
Fernando Marullfrom the FMyA consultancy, explained that, despite a generally negative June due to the holidays, the first high-frequency data for July are overwhelmingly positive. He highlighted that, among other indicators, cement shipments increased by 20% monthly, car production by 40%, and CAME consumption by 10%. In addition, annual declines have decreased by around -10%, compared to the -30% recorded in June.
Marull also mentioned that March marked the lowest point, followed by an improvement in April and May, a stability in Juneand an acceleration of the recovery in July. According to him, the recovery of economic activity does not follow a V-shaped pattern, but rather a U-shaped one, which is typical in Argentina’s average recessions.
For the rest of the year, Marull foresees that, with the reactivation of the agro-industrial sector, private construction, consumption driven by income, the gap and lower rates, as well as the greater normalization of imports and the contributions of the RIGI and money launderingactivity will continue its gradual recovery. The projection is for a 3% drop in the annual average, below the 3.7% estimated in the Central Bank’s Expectations Survey.
Luciano Cohan, co-founder of Alphacastalso highlighted that the July data are “very solids”, with a special mention to construction. According to its records, cement shipments increased by 17.9% monthly, while the Construya group index, which measures the sale of construction supplies, grew by 12.1%.
From Facimexindicated that the Indec sectoral indicators showed mixed signals in June, but the first data for July point to a notable rebound in activity compared to the previous month. Seasonally adjusted estimates for July suggest good performance in auto production and sales, as well as in construction.
Retail sales also posted the strongest growth of the year, while activity-related tax collections remained stable, confirming the growth seen in June.
Finally, CEPA maintains that, although a V-shaped recovery is not observed, the first economic activity data for July show an improvement in the inter-monthly comparison and a decrease in the year-on-year decline compared to previous months.
Source: Ambito
