Claudio Loserformer director for the Western Hemisphere of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and current executive president of Centennial Group Latin America, analyzed the price of dollar in Argentina and the current macroeconomic situation in the country.
Regarding a possible devaluation, Loser said that he does not share the vision of Javier Milei (who said that he will not devalue), because he considers an adjustment necessary due to the overvaluation of the peso. “When there are two economists, there are at least three opinions about the exchange rate,” reasoned the former IMF official. “The president is too attached to the idea of not devaluing, but an adjustment is necessary“Loser said in conversation with the Noticias Argentinas agency.
While Loser does not propose an abrupt devaluation, he maintains that a Higher monthly depreciation is necessary to balance the economy. Moreover, contrary to the president’s confirmation that there will be no devaluation, Loser warned that, in his experience, when the government denies the possibility of touching the exchange rate, it is likely to do so eventually: “There has to be some kind of adjustment.”
What Claudio Loser said about inflation, the gap and investments
Regarding inflation, which in July was recorded at 4%, Loser said that while it is positive that there is a downward trend, “The exchange rate at this moment is not helping the recovery.”
He also criticised the Central Bank’s strategy in recent weeks, which has involved great efforts and resources to reduce the exchange rate gap, without achieving significant results: “The dollars that had been collected to reduce this gap are being wasted,” he said.
He compared the current situation with the policies of the previous government and suggested that although the strategies are different, the result is similar: a failed attempt to control the exchange rate gap through the sale of dollars. “They are wasting gunpowder on mangoes,” he said.
Regarding the investment panorama, Loser assessed that there is optimism: “There is great expectation, but both the large investment funds and the Argentines who They have amounts of dollars abroad and are waiting to see a clear path“, said Claudio Loser, referring to the policies of eliminating restrictions on imports and exports.
New agreement with the IMF?
The ex-IMF economist highlighted the uncertainty that generate the next elections in the united stateson which any new agreement with the Fund depends: “This program in which Argentina is actually ends in the month of November,” so everything depends on the assumption of a new government for the North American country.
And, although he admitted to having an “anti-Trump bias,” he maintained that “Milei’s economic vision has nothing to do with“, and highlighted the differences between the two leaders, noting that “political expectations in the United States have totally changed” since Kamala Harris assumed a more prominent role in the Democratic campaign.
However, he stressed that “There is a political will that I have never seen in this century in Argentina”“, referring to President Milei’s approach, and that this could be a key factor for future negotiations with the international organization.
Source: Ambito
