Economists are beginning to warn of a possible exchange rate lag that does not allow for the accumulation of sufficient reserves. For this reason, they predict a wholesale rate above $1,200.
The main ones national banks and consulting firms and international projected how much the dollar by the end of the year. Focus Economics released the survey for the month of July, where more than 15 economists are beginning to warn of a possible exchange rate lag that does not allow it to accumulate the sufficient reserves, and an inflation that will struggle to break through 4%.
Specifically, in the latest FocusEconomics report, the economists who made the most negative forecasts for the official exchange rate, maintained that the wholesale bill could reach a level of 1.8% by the end of December. maximum value of $1,700.
This reference is equivalent to the fact that in all of 2024 the depreciation of the peso against the dollar would be up to 110%, since it started January at a price of almost $809. A percentage that remains the same lagging behind inflation expected by the analysts surveyed, because in the August survey the consumer price index projected on average is 234% for the entire current year.
How much will the dollar be at the end of the year?
The projections of economists They maintain that by the end of the year there may be an adjustment in the price of the official exchange rate, although estimates show a significant dispersion.
A group of 15 banks and consulting firms forecasts a dollar in December at a range between $1,300 and $1,700These forecasts are far from the announcements made by the Minister of Economy, Luis “Toto” Caputo, who had commented weeks ago that the slow official devaluation (crawling peg) of 2% per month would be maintained in the short term, to reach a value of the US dollar of $1,016 by the end of the year.
Thus, the highest projected quotes for the official dollar for the end of December are headed by S&P Global Ratings, with $1,700, followed by the national consulting firm Econviews ($1,560) and Empiria, with $1,519.
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In summary, the highest estimates for the official dollar price for the end of the year, They contemplate that there may be a “small” jump compared to the current rate due to a possible attempt to eliminate the differences in exchange rates in the various currency markets.
In this sense, the consensus of economists surveyed by FocusEconomics in August considers that the The official wholesale exchange rate will be at $1,233 at the end of December, This figure represents a 43-peso drop compared to what was expected in the survey last July for the same date, when $1,276 was expected.
Source: Ambito
