After weeks of falling fuel prices, diesel is now as cheap as it was last at the end of 2021 – before the Ukraine war and the increase in the CO2 price. However, a seasonal effect could soon counteract this.
The weeks-long decline in fuel prices continues and has made diesel as cheap as it was last at the end of 2021. E10 is also approaching the values from the year before the start of the Ukraine war, according to data from the ADAC. Specifically, a liter of diesel cost 1.553 euros on Tuesday on a nationwide daily average. This was last the case on December 31, 2021. On a weekly basis, the price fell by 1.7 cents. E10 premium gasoline even fell by 3.0 cents to 1.650 euros per liter. It was last cheaper on January 7, 2022.
Both fuel prices have been falling for weeks. Since an interim high at the beginning of July, diesel has become around 13 cents cheaper, E10 around 14 cents. The fact that diesel has now fallen back to 2021 levels is also remarkable because the CO2 price has risen since then, which is reflected in fuel at a few cents per liter. In addition, the price of diesel rose particularly sharply after the start of the Ukraine war, as the fuel was imported in large quantities from Russia.
Whether the low fuel price will continue depends largely on the development of the oil price, which is usually the most important driver for changes in fuel prices. Recently, oil has become cheaper. Whether this will remain the case is questionable, says ADAC fuel market expert Christian Laberer. “It is possible that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in a future meeting and that demand for crude oil would increase again as a result.” Tensions in the Middle East could also increase again and drive up the price of oil.
There is also a seasonal effect on diesel that could occur in the coming weeks and months: Since the fuel and heating oil are very similar, the start of the heating oil season has often proven to be a slight price driver for diesel. In spring, there is usually an opposite effect.
Source: Stern
