The President Javier Milei presented the 2025 Budget project that now will have to be dealt with by Congress. He did so with a speech in which he did not refer to hard data, but there are several points worth highlighting in the bill that was submitted to Parliament. In this regard, the key data on economic and financial matters that he left behind are several.
Inflation 2025: 18.3%
The first thing to say is that Milei and Caputo’s inflation projection is very optimistic, well above the market standard. The CPI is expected to reach 18.3% next year, far from the 104.5% increase in the consumer price index during the current year. It would be the lowest level of inflation since 2009 (around 14%).
This implies an average inflation of 1.4% per month. The official forecast is very low. below the REM estimates, which in August anticipated a price index increase of 38.4% for 2025.
Therefore, the Government expects a very strong reduction in inflation, although still far from the desired 0%. Even This goal would not be achieved during Javier Milei’s term, since for 2026 he expects 11.6% and for 2027 7.4%.
End of the COUNTRY Tax
The budget confirms, on the other hand, that the PAIS tax is coming up at the end of the year, according to the fiscal projections made in the 2025 Budget.
Dollar of $1,207 at the end of 2025
The price of the dollar that the government expects for the end of 2025 reflects that it will evolve in line with the expected inflation, so the peso will no longer appreciate as it did this year.
The Government’s calculations assume that the official dollar is located in December of this year at $1,019.90 and an increase of 18.3% by 2025, which would take the official dollar to $1,207 in December 2025. In this way, the Government insists on maintain its exchange rate policy, ignoring the arguments of those who point out, such as the IMF, that the exchange rate is outdated.
GDP in 2025: 5% growth
For 2025, official forecasts anticipate that growth of GDP is driven mainly by industry and commerce, with increases of 6.2% and 6.7%, respectively..
For its part, it is expected that the agricultural sector advances 3.5%In sum, goods items grew by an average of 5.6%, above services, which rose by 4.4%.
On the demand side, a recovery is expected in all components; in particular, Private Consumption grows 4.5% and Investment, 9.9%.
The Government expects a surplus of US$20.748 million for next yearresulting from an increase in the exported value of goods and services by 9.0% and an increase of 13.4% in imports.
Primary surplus in 2025: 1.3% of GDP
The 2025 budget project includes a financial surplus of $190.655 millionslightly in surplus in terms of GDP, while The primary result would reach $1,473,426 million, that is, a surplus of 1.3% of GDP.
Source: Ambito
