The report stated that given the “state of collapse” where the electric transport system is located, the “The probability of covering peak demand depends on the capacity to import energy, which must be guaranteed to avoid widespread or long-term outages.” Of the 43,700 megabytes installed in Argentina, 70% are available, about 33,000 megabytes. And that is why, he warns, “Effective management of operating reserves is essential to maintain system stability during critical times.”
Due to Brazil’s low hydroelectric power generation due to droughts, the lack of completion of gas compressor plants and the cessation of operation of the Atucha I nuclear power plant As of September 28 (362 megabytes less), the coverage forecast for the The expected peak in summer would be 30,700 MW, or an additional 2,500 MWh imported. The current consumption record remains at 29,653 MW, occurred on February 1st.
If we take into account that 1 megawatt supplies 330 homes in one hour, the equivalent of the hourly consumption of 825,000 residential users. Although some sources indicated that this figure could rise to 1.5 million, depending on consumption.
Where will the imported energy for the summer come from?
At least three qualified sources revealed to Scope different prices for the necessary energy imports, which may vary later depending on availability and international and regional geopolitical tensions. One factor to take into account is the expected start-up of the Néstor Kirchner Gas Pipeline compressor plantswhich could replace imports and cover peaks with thermal generation.
In addition, the Importing energy for the summer may involve a combination of different sources, such as the Liquefied Natural Gas which comes by boat (generally they are not used at that time), liquid fuels (fuel oil or diesel) or the diverse generation that neighboring countries have such as Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Bolivia or Paraguayincluding fossil and renewable sources.
For this reason, four possible scenarios were established to calculate a possible cost in dollars of the extra demand for electricity that Argentina will require during the 90 days of this hot season, since late December to late March.
The four scenarios for energy imports in the summer
To model the scenarios, the two import requirement figures were taken into account: the 1,431 MWh average throughout the summer (90 days for 8 hours) and the peaks of around 2,500 MWh for about 4 hours a dayover three heat waves of 10 days each (30 days).
It is worth clarifying that the peaks would occur with an average demand already covered, so only the difference (about 1,000 MW) is added. These factors are variable and, of course, could be shortened or – worse – extended.
Scenario 1: The most positive
The first scenario is the most optimistic. A very low price is taken for the current market. US$60 for each MWhsimilar to the cost of nuclear energy. In this case, the average monthly extra would be US$20,606,400 and of US$61,819,200 for the entire season. Meanwhile, US$60 per MWh For consumption peaks, the bill would increase by US$7,200,000. In this analysis, for the summer they would be spent US$89,625,000.
Scenario 2: Moderately optimistic
The second price is US$102.1 for each MWh, what was paid during the energy stress of May 2024 caused by the cold wave. With this value, the average import extra for 30 days would be US$35,065,224 and for the whole season it would be US$105,195,672. And for consumption peaks, some would be added US$47,317,224. In total, under this scenario, it would be necessary to spend US$152,512,896 more.
Scenario 3: Pessimistic
The third of the postulates was made at a price of US$120 MWhwhich is what Paraguayan energy costs. In this case, it will be necessary US$41,212,800 for 30 days of summer and US$123,638,400 for the entire season. At peak consumption times, they are added US$55,612,800. In total it would reach US$179,251,200.
Scenario 4: the most worrying
Finally, and in the worst case scenario, the additional imported energy was estimated at a value of US$210 per MWhwhat it cost to buy it during the cold snap in May Uruguay The thermal energy generated in a combined cycle of the company UTE. It was about 500 MW. This price was one of the highest in history, and although there are no signs that it can be repeated, it is not ruled out.
In this case, if you pay u$s210 For 30 days the total bill would amount to US$72,122,400 and throughout the summer – an almost improbable situation – US$216,367,200. While at the peak of consumption of three heat waves of 10 days each, about US$97,322,400. The total here would rise to US$313,689,600.
Other options to meet energy demand
The main option to cover high electricity demand in summer is the natural gaswhether from conventional basins, offshore or unconventional Dead Cow. This local gas is paid up to US$4.8 per million BTU. In fact, based on the quarterly rescheduling, Cammesa would have 10 million cubic meters per day (MMm3/d more) of Argentine gas available compared to the actual volume in 2023. This amount would be enough to cover all the extra electricity demand for the summer. Therefore, It would take only about $50 million to get through the summer without power outages, if the transmission system can handle it.
The Néstor Kirchner Gas Pipeline, the most important energy project of the last 40 years, was built to supply energy at low prices. But to take full advantage of the transport potential (up to 22 MMm3/d), More compressor plants still need to be put into operation. There would soon be RIGI news in the works.
If that does not happen, one option – the least viable – is import LNG. Until the end of January the regasification ship File of Excelerate Energy will be moored at the Escobar terminal, on the Paraná River in Las Palmas. The ship can inject up to 21 MMm3/d. To cover the peak demand of 2,500 MW, 2,500 MW would be needed. 11 MMm3/d.
However, no tender for Enarsa is planned for the summer. “In its programming it would not be expecting significant volumes of LNG for the next few months”a source from the sector told this newspaper. The price of the last cargo of LNG from Enarsa was scheduled for next September 25 at US$13.62 per million BTU.
LNG ruled out, what is estimated in Cammesa’s schedule is to buy liquid fuels (diesel oil) for thermal generation at a price US$19.5 per million BTUIf it were necessary to cover about 11 MMm3/d, the total expenditure for the peak consumption would be around US$7.5 million per day.
What energy experts think
Nicholas Malinovskya master in Energy Management and a specialist in the nuclear sector, regretted the statements of Guillermo Francos about the scheduled power outages and points to the lack of works. “Francos omits in his statements that the current administration of Javier Milei cancelled public works in December 2023 and consequently the infrastructure works associated with the energy sector, among which we can mention, the Thermal Generation Reliability Supply Contracts (TerConf) for 3,340 MW, which were terminated in July 2024“, held.
In this context, Malinovsky He warned that “the Government’s energy policy, which at first glance appears to lack planning, suggests that its ultimate goal is the privatisation and concentration of the energy sector in the hands of a handful of businessmen with the ultimate goal of maximising their profits.”
“In these 10 months of management we have seen: rate increases, laws that support future privatizations – such as ENARSA, Nucleoeléctrica Argentina SA, Yacimientos Carboníferos Fiscales, among others – and now the announcement of scheduled cuts, which take us back to the collective memory of the late 80s, where, at that time, There were announcements from the ‘Foundation for Action for Private Initiative’ to privatize public companies, which were the prelude to the deregulation and subsequent sale of the national energy sector.“, he said.
In summary, according to Malinovsky, The Government’s “non-planning” “translates into a great deal for energy businessmen, who today form part of Javier Milei’s government.”
Cecilia Garibottiformer Undersecretary of Energy Planning, joined in the criticism of the lack of planning in energy matters. “It was known that there are critical nodes that need more energy generation,” she said, adding: “The previous government identified these sectors with energy deficit and launched a tender to have greater energy generation (referring to TerConf)On July 10, this Government cancelled them for a purely ideological reason, and today they say that there is no generation.”
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In addition, Garibotti acknowledged that this action is part of the libertarian government’s way of operating and indicated that “Over the past few months, what we have seen are inefficient decisions, one after another.”
“They created all the conditions for us to be in this situation. They suspended all the works that would have allowed us to solve this problem and on top of that, electricity is going to cost us all more,” he stressed.
Augustin Gerez, former head of Enarsa, said that the Government “It makes bad decisions regarding energy and society ends up paying for it with increases in rates and rotating power outages.”
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“When one does not believe in planning and thinks that things are resolved by the market, the consequences are obvious. How do you explain to society, which is paying rates at the level of European powers, that it will have rotating power cuts in the summer?”said the former official, now part of the Renovador Front.
Gerez stressed that during the previous administration two central issues were resolved: one was the construction of the Néstor Kirchner Gas Pipeline, which will lead to a surplus of US$4 billion, and the other was the planning of the construction of 3,000 thermal megas (with TerConf), that is, energy from gas to be able to unblock energy problems in the future. “The 3,000 thermal megawatts involved private investments of US$4,000 million that had already been planned, but which this Government inexplicably ended up cancelling, affecting 1.5 million homes in the country”Gerez concluded.
Source: Ambito
