Since May 21, the blue dollar fails to break through $1,200. More recently, in the last 13 days, the The parallel rate remains practically unchanged with minimal fluctuations between $1,200 and $1,300, which could reinforce the idea that $1,200 could be your floor.
Regarding the MEPthe curious thing is that the last time both exchange rates were almost at the The same value was on April 9 of this yearwhen the illegal one was at $1,000 and the dollar bag at $1,000.69. Since then, the difference between the two has widened to the point that the MEP ended up being cheaper than the informal one. Economic consultants seek to explain what is the equilibrium value, by analyzing what is happening in the supply of dollars and what factors could intervene in October to reverse this trend.
The dollar supply, the key to the “exchange summer”
According to a report by ACA Valores, the drop in parallel dollars was driven by the inflow of foreign currency from money laundering. This was reflected in a Strong rise in dollar deposits In the private sector, according to official data, bank deposits have increased by approximately US$4 billion since the program was launched on September 17.
Thus, foreign currency deposits in financial institutions rose to US$24,561 million, its highest level in five years.
In addition, the calm in the exchange rate is due to the Demand for pesos for advances on Personal Property (i.e., they sell dollars to obtain pesos), the supply generated by the validity of the blended dollar and the diversion of importers to the MULC from the reduction of the PAIS Tax rates. Also, an important fact, is the intervention of the BCRA to maintain the gap in the order of 20%.
The dollar floor and warnings for October
Ignacio Morales, CIO (Chief Investment Officer) of Wise Capital, maintains that for the financial dollars, the $1,200 level “represents a solid floor.” And he adds that as the positive factors of laundering lose strength, “Dollars could return to values between $1,250 and $1,300aligning itself more with the dollar monetary liabilities.”
For Wise Capital, “the government must begin to relax restrictions, at least in relation to financial dollars. This would allow us to observe the real demand for the dollar and obtain a genuine reference for the exchange rate, without state intervention or exceptional flows, such as those derived from money laundering.”
According to the analysis of a recognized consulting firm, in October there will be Factors that could affect financial calm: the money from the money laundering will stop coming in, there will be greater import demand in the MULC and we will have to see what happens in the global context. This is The payment of the first installment of imports is added with the reduction of the PAIS Tax, so the BCRA will have to sell foreign currency. These factors show that this kind of peace would change. could come to an end and the dollar could drop below $1,200.
Source: Ambito
