In its recent Outlook report, it stated that Argentina will have the worst growth in 2024 of all G20 countries. However, it improved the outlook for 2025.
The OECD worsened their forecasts on the growth in Argentina and estimated that the economy will fall 4% this year, seven-tenths more than it had anticipated in May. However, it expects lower inflation, which will be close to 150% annually.
In its interim Outlook report, published this Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) believes that Argentina will once again be the country of the G20 which will have the worst evolution in 2024. In fact, there will only be one other country where GDP will also fall: Japan, and this will be almost imperceptibly so (0.1%).
As regards inflation, which was 117.2% in 2023, this year it will rise to even higher levels (147.5%), but significantly lower than those predicted in May, with a downward revision of 60.6 percentage points.
What will happen to growth in 2025?
Things should change significantly by 2025when activity in Argentina will grow by 3.9%, according to the authors of the document, who raised their forecasts from four months ago by 1.2 points. In fact, it is the most important correction for next year of all countries.
Inflation, for its part, should moderate next year and stand at 46.7%, 24.5 percentage points lower than estimated in May and higher than the Budget forecast.
It will remain the only G20 member with double-digit inflation, along with Türkiye (29.1%).
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Key data from Argentina, highlighted by the OECD
The OECD clarified that in Argentina, as in Brazil, Mexico or Turkey, the depreciation of the currency against the major international currencies favored the increase in income from exports, but at the same time contributed to the fact that raise the cost of financing debt in dollars.
Specifically, regarding debt, he warns that emerging economies Heavily indebted countries are highly exposed to changes in financial conditions on a global scale when that debt is in foreign currency, as is the case in Argentina.
His recommendation there is to make reforms to rStrengthen tax collection and public spending efficiency, combat tax fraud, reduce the weight of public companies and decrease informal activity.
Source: Ambito
