The concern of the economic team that the dollars that were declared in the special accounts enabled for laundering are kept in the banks is justified. There are some projections that indicate that Most of those who transferred cash in September will take the money with them during October.
If that happens, It would be a serious blow to the prospects of the officials of the Treasury Palace, They hope to have a good amount of new money in bank accounts to reinforce international reserves and thus keep the price of financial dollars at bay.
Although there is still no official data from the Federal Public Revenue Administration (AFIP), The market consensus is that the money laundering operation, at least in relation to cash, It’s going to be much better than expected.
The market expectation for money laundering dollars
Some suppose that The final figure will be closer to US$15,000 million than US$10,000. The problem would be in the component. The money laundering strategy designed by the team Luis Caputo targeted the smallest taxpayersby setting an exempt minimum of US$100,000.
These are the majority of those they save dollars under the mattressbut, at the same time, They are the least sophisticated savers. What is assumed is that, beyond to go from a state of non-declaration to one of regularization, nothing happens afterwards. There would be no investments in common funds, homes under construction or public bonds. Or, put another way, The dollars will go from the mattress to an account and then return to the place from which they originally came. Or what is technically called External Asset Formation, which is the Central Bank account that reflects how many dollars are sold for hoarding.
Alberto Mastandrea, partner of Tax & Legal, BDO in Argentina and postgraduate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences (UBA), points out that, according to a survey carried out by that tax consulting firm, 70% of the money declared in cash is below the US$100,000 deductible.
How the bleachers will operate
”In general terms, that mass that approximately represented 70% of the sample, You will withdraw the money starting October 1st. While they will not go immediately tomorrow, in the coming days, gradually It is going to drain that sum that was deposited,” Mastandrea said in a report.
The professional suggests that of the remaining 30% (which correspond to deposits above US$100,000) “40% will be allocated to financial investments and the other 60% will be withdrawn somehow supporting the 5% excise tax.”
“Those who leave it – and in general there was a greater desire for financial investments – We had very few cases, at least for now, of allocating them to real estate investments, which was another of the alternatives,” he warned.
Mastandrea indicated that “in general we understand that andAs for the number of people who entered into laundering, it seems that it is a significant number.”
“Many people came in, perhaps what is not significant is the amount of what they have expressed or what they have declared, unlike what happened with the money laundering.” year 2016, where there was also a significant volume, but each laundering in itself was significant,” he recalled.
The analyst said that “in this case there was many low-value launderings” and He specified that ““It has to do with unbanked money that was outside the financial system.”
“Later there was also a significant volume of human beings who externalized investment portfolios abroad, a product of what is the automatic exchange of information with the United States,” he noted.
Source: Ambito
