According to the federal government, there should be 15 million purely electric cars on Germany’s roads by 2030. But private car owners are very hesitant to switch, as a motor vehicle insurance analysis shows.
According to calculations by HUK Coburg, only a small minority of the German population switches to purely electric cars when buying a car. In the third quarter of this year, only 3.9 percent of private car owners chose an electric car when purchasing a car – new or used – as the company calculated for its first published “E-Barometer”. The share of battery cars in the private vehicle population only increased by 0.1 percent from July to September and totaled 2.9 percent.
Analysis of private car registrations
With almost 14 million insured vehicles, HUK is the market leader in motor vehicle insurance in Germany; every year a six-figure number of drivers register another vehicle. This company’s own database was the basis for the calculations. The company has retroactively calculated the electric car quota in the private vehicle fleet for all quarters up to the beginning of 2020. Accordingly, the switching rate this year fell back to the level of 2021 after the federal government canceled the purchase bonus, despite a larger range of electric car models and technical improvements.
Unlike the Federal Motor Transport Authority in its new registration statistics, the company only analyzed the purchasing behavior of private car owners – including used cars – for its “E-Barometer” and left company cars out. “We want to use this instrument to make the acceptance and speed of switching to electric cars among the German private population comprehensively measurable and to present developments,” said HUK board member Jörg Rheinländer.
Partial backward movement to petrol and diesel
This year, according to HUK, the share of electric cars nationwide could grow more slowly than it has in four years. In addition, according to the evaluation, there is at least a partial backward movement: this year, a good third of previous electric car drivers decided to use the combustion engine again when purchasing another car.
According to the information, there are also clear differences by federal state: the share of electric cars is highest in Bavaria at 3.4 percent, while Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt were at the bottom of the table with 1.5 percent each.
Political goal in the distance
The company therefore raises the question of whether it could be a “fundamental acceptance problem”. The proportion of e-car supporters is higher in an accompanying representative Yougov survey with 4,147 participants. 17 percent said that they wanted to switch from combustion engines to electric motors in the next two years. But even if those concerned were to implement this intention, according to HUK calculations, the federal government’s target of 15 million purely electric cars on German roads by 2030 would be missed.
This assessment corresponds to a forecast published by the management consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the non-governmental organization Agora Verkehrswende at the end of July. Accordingly, if the current trend continues, the target of 15 million electric cars would be six million vehicles short of. According to most experts, the punitive tariffs imposed by the EU Commission on electric cars imported from China could mean a further setback.
Source: Stern
